In today’s Gallup, Mitt Romney has a significant lead over President Obama among likely voters: seven points. Romney is at 52 percent to Obama’s 45 percent.
So what’s going on? I talked to Frank Newport, Gallup’s editor-in-chief, who warned that poll watchers should be careful to remember that Gallup’s daily number is an average of seven days. “It takes a while for any impact, in say the debate Tuesday night, to percolate through,” Newport says. “I think we’re just still seeing the positive enthusiasm on the part of the Romney people that came out at the first debate, and I think it’s too early to tell what’s going to happen” as a result of the second debate.
Real Clear Politics’ Sean Trende speculates that one day’s polling may have been very different:
Guessing Gallup has a day with a 1-in-1000 sample (like Romney+15), and that everything else is normal variance.— Sean Trende (@SeanTrende) October 18, 2012
Former Howard Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi thinks Democrats shouldn’t brush off the Gallup results:
With today’s Gallup Tracking numbers Romney 52% & Obama 45% — I do not think Gallup is an anomaly. Dems should take it seriously.— Joe Trippi (@JoeTrippi) October 18, 2012
I don’t believe Romney has the size lead that Gallup’s track shows. Smaller than 7pts. But Dems should treat trend & movement as real.— Joe Trippi (@JoeTrippi) October 18, 2012