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Polling Wrap-Up and Hurricane Sandy’s Impact



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Today’s daily tracking polls might be the last batch we see for a few days as many pollsters are suspending field work during Hurricane Sandy. So far Gallup and IBD/Tipp have both announced that polling will stop until the storm passes through, and this of course will make for very interesting polling in the final weekend of the campaign.

Of course, with just a week to go until the election, every poll will be scrutinized at increasing levels, and they’ll be watched for any signs that Hurricane Sandy is having an impact on the race. It is hard to imagine the polls would move based on the hurricane alone, but any movement could be huge if the race tightens in the final stretch.

That said, the race seems to be fairly stable with a small lead for Romney. Among the polls that have come out in the last 24 hours:

Gallup tracking ticked up slightly for Romney with a 51–45 lead. This was the 14th day in a row that Romney has been at 50 or above on Gallup.

Rasmussen tightened to Romney up with a 49-47 lead. Romney’s lead with independents has shrunk from two days ago, but he is doing better with Democrats, which is why he can lead in a poll that has a four-point edge in party ID for Democrats.

The final Pew national poll was released today showing a tied race at, of course, 47 percent. Pew showed a four-point drop for Romney since their last poll, but the party ID moved six points to Democrats. From last month, a six-point movement to Democrats in party ID only yielded four points for Obama. Romney actually increased his lead among independents to eight points, 48–40. And last, Pew has the highest Democrat-leaning “house effect” of all national pollsters, so many would view a tie where Romney leads independents as a good poll.#more#

The Washington Post/ABC tracking poll this weekend has had three straight days of Romney leading by a single point, 49–48. During those three days the sample advantage for Democrats has moved from D+4 on Friday to D+6 on Saturday to D+7 on Sunday. So while they polled 3 percent more Democrats this weekend, Romney’s lead has remained because of a 15-point edge with independents.

The Politico Battleground poll has Obama up one point, 49–48. Romney leads independents by ten points, and leads both on the economy and in enthusiasm. However the projection based on a survey from pollster Ed Goeas points to a Romney 52–47 win based on enthusiasm and the fundamentals the candidates face heading to Election Day. This is in line with Gallup’s polling and to a lesser extent Rasmussen’s.

Three state polls were released last night by the Democrat-leaning polling firm Public Policy Polling. All of them showed dramatic movement toward Obama from their last poll, but they also all had large partisan gaps that do not mirror the likely electorate in 2012. They had Obama up one point in Florida with a sample that had 2 percent more Democrats than in 2008, four points in Ohio with a sample that had 3 percent more Democrats than in 2008, and two points in New Hampshire with the same Democratic advantage as in 2008. Bottom line from PPP is that Obama can only win if he exceeds the turnout he achieved in the wave election of 2008.

Two other Ohio polls were released showing an improved picture for Romney. A poll from Gravis Marketing had Obama up one point, 50–49, but Romney led independents by twelve points. That poll had a party-ID advantage for Democrats of eight points, which is three higher than in 2008.

Rasmussen Reports released an Ohio poll this morning showing Romney with a two-point lead, 50–48, which is his first lead with Rasmussen since May.

A Florida poll from CNN had Romney up one point, 50–49. Romney led independents by five points, making up for the one-point edge Democrats had in the party ID.

Right now Romney looks like he is heading in the right direction for victory next Tuesday, but Hurricane Sandy is proving that nothing is predictable this year, and eight days just might feel like an eternity.



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