The RNC is saying that despite the early voting leaning toward President Obama, Republicans are in a much better position to do well on Election Day, with far fewer of their likely voters having already cast ballots. From a memo by RNC political director Rick Wiley (emphasis his):
Republicans are an Election Day party. By and large, we vote on Election Day, and we vote in much larger numbers than Democrats.
Democrats’ problems are compounded because, as they fail to tell you, they are cannibalizing their Election Day voters. The great turnout operation they claim to have isn’t turning out enough new or sporadic voters; they’re largely getting their reliable voters to vote early instead of on Election Day.
The Republican strategy has been the reverse of the Democrats’. We have turned out our voters who aren’t as likely to come to the polls on Election Day, securing their votes during early voting. Now, all that remains to do is give our reliable voters the final reminder needed to get them to the polls Tuesday. And we have many more reliable voters left than the Democrats.
In Colorado there are over 26,000 (34%) more high-propensity Republican voters available than high-propensity Democrat voters. In Florida there are 166,000 (21%) more; 85,000 (47%) more in Iowa; and 16,000 (22%) more in Nevada.
And in Ohio, Republicans have 368,000 more high-propensity voters available than Democrats–72 percent more, in fact–and enough to off-set the Obama campaign’s most optimistic (and unrealistic) early vote math.
So, when you add it all up, the Democrats’ early vote advantage just isn’t big enough. Republicans will come out ahead, and Mitt Romney will claim victory. And our superior ground game will ensure that the margin of victory is even greater than these numbers would suggest.