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The Corner

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Mourdock’s Chances in Indiana



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A Republican strategist e-mailed this assessment of how Richard Mourdock was doing in his Senate race in Indiana, after the poll showing him trailing by eleven points came out on Friday:

I have been concerned for awhile now that Mourdock would lose this race mainly because he seemed to have a hard time connecting with a broad enough base of voters, and his numbers seemed to show that. But having said that, I was also surprised to see Howey’s 11 point Donnelly lead this morning. That’s larger than I would have expected. I don’t think Howey has released cross-tabs, other than what Fred Yang wrote about here (http://howeypolitics.com/main.asp?SectionID=47&TM=38627.81), so I’m not sure if these are all motivated voters. It looks like they were sampled to reflect IN’s R/D breakdown. It does seem evident that Mourdock’s rape comments have been broadly absorbed by the public, which isn’t good for him.

Mourdock has had a hard time getting Lugar supporters to back him, and the comments only reinforced fears among that crowd that he’s not up to the task (something that’s pretty clear in everyday conversation with them).

So, in sum, I have a hard time believing it’s an 11 point difference, but I do think Mourdock is in trouble.



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