Not Exactly Fearless Prediction

by Rich Lowry

I said on Sunday I “kinda” think Romney will win. When I repeated that last night on Hugh Hewitt, Hugh laughed at me with the assurance of someone serenely confident in the coming Romney landslide. I told him nothing would please me more than to see him completely vindicated. But it feels like a 49-49 proposition to me. I’m not a big believer in the non-Ohio options, although my understanding is that Paul Ryan has been feeling confident about Wisconsin. I think the path is Indiana and North Carolina (pretty much assured), Florida (looking good), Virginia and Colorado (dicey but doable), and Ohio. Of course, if he wins Ohio, you can substitute in another option for Colorado. The vibe from the Romney campaign has been that Ohio is very close, but they have been a tick behind. It looks like it will take Republican enthusiasm — which is real — to get them just barely over the top.

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