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Data the Romney Campaign Is Looking At



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This is what the Romney folks say is encouraging them. Passed along for what it’s worth:

CO:

Adams County (lean D county) – strong R turnout based on morning data – on track to win since first time in 1984.

AB/EV margins will be hard for them to overcome today.  Right now – it’s a virtual tie.

Arapahoe (Swing County) – 4860 D, 5271 R – Election Day so far

Over 83% of the vote was AB/EV – Dem: 75653 Rep: 75812

Jefferson County (Swing) – 78738 D, 85378 R for AB/EV

Waiting on election day

Teller County (Hard GOP) – 173 D, 656 R for election day

Winning 5-1 with AB/EV – clearly outperforming 2008

Archuletta/ Moffatt – western slope counties where we needed to run up the score.  Well here you go:

Archuleta County

175

57

Moffat County

253

49

IA:

Republicans are already over-performing their share of returned absentee ballots and early votes in 95 of Iowa’s 99 counties – including critical counties like Black Hawk, Cerro Gordo, Dallas, Des Moines, Dubuque, Johnson, Linn, Marion, Muscatine, Polk, Pottawattamie, Poweshiek, Sioux, Story, Wapello, Woodbury, and Winneshiek.

Republicans are even over-performing their share of ballots returned in 75 of 99 counties compared to 2004, the first time a Republican candidate carried Iowa in a presidential election since 1984, and are over-performing 2004 statewide by more than 3 points.

Suburban turnout is very high. Ankeny, Clive, and Urbandale precincts are seeing a lot of Election Day traffic. Those are Republican precincts.

NW Iowa counties which are hugely Republican but just never blew out turnout for McCain are voting in very large numbers. Those counties very fired up for Mitt.

Rural turnout high and we’re leading among rural Iowa voters.

Record low turnout in lefty Johnson County (Dems already voted all their base with early vote) – proving our point about cannibalizing their high propensity voters.

Republican precincts are turning out today, like we want it to be. Dem precincts are lighter but expected lighter because they’ve voted so many early.

FL:

Bay County, FL – which went 71 – 28 for GW Bush in ‘04 – is adding staff at voting locations because of overwhelming turnout.

Hialeah (FL), highest % Cubans & Cuban-Americans in America & regarded as “most GOP” b/c of vote history, reports lines around the block.

- 2 hour lines reported in Walton County, a county that voted 73.2% for George W. Bush in 2004 (21 points above the statewide percentage for Bush).

- Hour-plus lines reported in Escambia County, a county that voted 65.3% for George W. Bush in 2004.

- Long lines and Republicans outvoting Democrats by nearly two to one in traditional bellwether county Pasco (of which Jeb Bush famously said “as goes Pasco, as goes Florida” which George W. Bush won’t by 10 points in 2004.)

- Shorter wait times reported in Miami-Dade County – especially in Democratic precincts. Democrats usually win Miami-Dade by 10 pts or more. (Obama won it by 16 points in 2008.)

- LONG line is of Precinct 69 in Ft. Myers (Lee County). Breakdown of registered voters in that area is below: R: 1,314 D: 531

NH:

Over 90% of the vote is on the table for Election Day

Very high turnout in strong GOP towns of Pelham, Bedford, Merrimack, Atkinson, well surpassing 08 numbers. Estimates for Bedford have nearly 90% turning out, and it’s a 60/40 GOP Town.

Dems slightly behind or on par with 08 numbers. Concord not turning out, reports of small or nonexistent lines.

Bedford – a top 5 GOP town that gave McCain 59% in 2008 -reporting 800+ voters per hour w/anticipated turnout of near 90%

NV:

About even in Washoe for AB/EV – held them to where we needed to in Clark for the early vote.

Overall – Clark County is seeming to be lower than anticipated and we’re seeing strong turnout in the rurals.  This is what we need to play ball to win.

OH:

Absentee and early vote activity is over 17 percent higher in counties McCain won than counties Obama won, compared to 2008.

Turnout is higher in counties and media markets McCain carried in ’08 than in counties and markets Obama carried.

There are 34 counties in Ohio that John McCain won where absentee and early vote turnout is over 120 percent of 2008. There are only 9 counties where Obama won four years ago where this is the case.

@HotlineJosh: Overall, early vote turnout OH up 2.44% in state. Down -4.1% in Obama/Kerry counties; up 14.39% in Bush/McCain counties.

GOP county turnout up

 

·         Plain Dealer: Geauga election chief predicts 80 percent voter turnout today

·         Geauga County early vote was 125% more than 2008 early vote

·         McCain won Geauga County with 57% and Bush got 60% in ‘04

 

Dem county turnout down

 

·         WOUB: Athens County Election Officials: Morning Voter Turn Out Low

·         Athens County early vote was 10% less than 2008 early vote

·         Obama won Athens County with 67%

#more#

PA:

Coal Country is coming out stronger than in previous elections according to data we’ve received.

Final AB #s of returns as opposed to requests is going to come in at about R+8 which would put it 1 pt to the right of 2010.  8pts to the right of 2008. (a small but telling number)

Northern Bucks County is coming out strong for GOP (this is a bellweather)

Western PA is turning out in historic numbers for a Presidential – remember this is coal country.  They are not voting for Obama

Southcentral PA is turning out strong (traditional GOP stronghold)

VA:

In Staunton’s Ward 4 in 2008, 1450 people voted. As of 1:30 p.m. today , 1223 people had voted. McCain won this precinct 54.8 – 44.3.

By noon 972 votes had been cast in Elmont’s precinct 704 in Hanover County. In 2008, there were 1422 total votes cast in the precinct, which McCain won 68-30 in 2008.

In Democratic stronghold Charlottesville at 1 p.m., turnout was 36 percent of registered voters. Obama got 80 percent of the vote there in 2008.

In Democratic stronghold Martinsville at noon, turnout was out 34 percent of registered voters. Obama got 65 percent of the vote there in 2008.

Yancey Precinct In Augusta County has seen 1474 people vote as of 1 p.m., that’s 48 percent of the precinct’s registered voters. John McCain won Yancey Precinct 68 to 30 percent.

Bluefield media market and Withville we’re seeing 2 hour wait lines – this is coal country in VA.  These are Romney voters.

WI:

Massive lines in Brookfield – a high 60’s GOP county – over 200 in line at 6:15am and polls did not open until 7.

We’re hearing reports of low turnout this morning in both Madison and Milwaukee.



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