Google+
Close

The Corner

The one and only.

In Ohio, The Polls Weren’t Skewed



Text  



According to exit polls, the partisan breakdown on Election Day was 38 percent Democratic, 30 percent Republican, and 31 percent independent. That gave Democrats an 8-point advantage — the same they enjoyed in 2008. (In 2004, Republicans had a 5-point advantage in the Buckeye state.)

So, as someone who defended questioning the scrutinizing the polls’ partisan breakdown in their samples, I decided to look at the most recent Ohio polls, and see if they accurately called the partisan breakdown. Here’s what I found:

 

Public Policy Polling D+8 (43 percent D., 35 percent R., 22 percent I./O.) 

Columbus Dispatch D+4 (40 percent D., 36 percent R., 21 percent I.)

SurveyUSA D+5 (39 percent D., 34 percent R., 25 percent I.)

Gravis Marketing D+8 (42 percent D., 34 percent R., 24 percent I./O.)

NBC/WSJ/Marist D+9 (38 percent D., 29 percent R., 32 percent I.)

I admit it: when I saw the NBC/WSJ/Marist partisan breakdown, I was fairly confident that turnout on election Day would not mirror that. But Marist was only off by a point. 



Text