Since I didn’t see a lot of the movies under consideration this year, I didn’t join in on the prediction fun. But I did see Argo, and I’ve always thought it had a good chance to win. I didn’t think it was a great movie. But it was good. The reason I thought its odds were better than most was that it panders to Hollywood itself. First, there’s the nostalgia for the Hollywood most of the oldsters who dominate the Academy remember so fondly. The movie also celebrates Hollywood patriotism without actually making patriotism scary for liberals. Last, there’s the elevation of Hollywood’s status and role in world affairs. I know it’s loosely based on a true story. But Argo, like Wag the Dog, scratches a funny psychological itch among some in Hollywood that they know how to really get things done.