Ten years ago I wrote an article for NR about the future of the debate over same-sex marriage. I concluded that although the polls showed majority opposition to the idea, that was very likely to change over the next few years. At the time the Weekly Standard ran an essay criticizing my “defeatism,” and some proponents of same-sex marriage called me “alarmist.” I responded to both sets of critics by saying that the article was an attempt at description, not prescription. I think it holds up pretty well (although not perfectly).
One thing that struck me at the time was that the public agreed with social conservatives’ conclusion on marriage but not their premises, whereas it was the other way around on abortion. And so the argument against abortion was likely to be more successful than the argument against same-sex marriage, even though at the time a quick glance at the polls would have led you to believe the reverse.