PPP puts Palin at a 39 percent approval rating against a 58 percent disapproval rating overall, a gap of 19 points. She does even worse among independents, polling at 33 percent approval to 64 percent disapproval (Of the potential GOP candidates, only 2010 nominee Joe Miller is more disliked, with a 63 percent disapproval rating). Perhaps the most damaging data point is that among those polled, which included an oversampling of GOP primary voters, only 47 percent considered Palin to still be an Alaskan, compared with 46 percent who do not consider her Alaskan.
Lieutenant Governor Mead Treadwell (R) provides the staunchest challenge to Senator Mark Begich (D., Alaska). Treadwell trails Begich by only four percentage points in a hypothetical matchup, and Dan Sullivan, Alaska’s natural-resources commisioner, trails by a few points more, 46–39. Palin is twelve points behind at 52–40, and Miller is 23 points behind at 55–32.
This doesn’t mean Begich is guaranteed the seat; he stands at 42 percent approval to 41 percent disapproval. That’s down from the 49–39 approval he had in a February PPP poll.