As of last week, fewer than 50,000 people have signed up for private health insurance on the federal government’s exchange, the Wall Street Journal reports — specifically, health-insurance companies have gotten the health-plan enrollment information for 40–50,000 people. Internal memos cited by Michigan Republican congressman Dave Camp last week had projected 500,000 enrollees on the federal exchange (which serves about 35 states) through October, so obviously the target has been missed by a wide margin. The federal exchange has also presumably led many people to sign up for Medicaid, but we don’t know how many just yet.
This number, by my ballpark calculations, means about 1 percent of the people whom the CBO expected to enroll on the federal exchange have purchased plans so far.
Doing some back-of-the-envelope math with Avalere’s model, about 2.5 million of the people the CBO expects to get insurance live in states with state-run exchanges, leaving 4.5 million in the states with the federally run exchange –so about 1 percent of the people who need to enroll have enrolled. This is a really rough estimate, of course, but it is interesting — it’s a poor showing (the Obama administration expected 10 percent of the target enrollees to sign up in this time period, according to the aforementioned documents), but it isn’t much worse than the state exchanges, either.
Sliced another way, working just from the numbers of uninsured people in each state (regardless of income and subsidy eligiblity, etc.), the rate is similar. About 60 percent of uninsured Americans live in states using the federal exchange, so we’d expect about 4.2 million of them to get insurance — again, meaning about 1 percent of the CBO’s projected enrollees have enrolled.