The Percentages

by Jay Nordlinger

I smiled when I saw a post from John Fund: “Charlie Cook: 40 Percent Chance Hillary Doesn’t Run.” (By the way, I now think of the Charlie Cook in question — the one who is the longtime American political analyst and handicapper — as “the other Charlie Cook/e,” our own, of course, being the first.)

Not long ago, I checked the weather on my phone app. I said to a friend, worryingly, “It says 30 percent chance of rain.” She said, “Great — that means a 70 percent chance of no rain. We’re probably in the clear.”

I hadn’t thought of that. (And I’m not sure it’s true, my meteorology being a little rusty. Anyway . . .)

You might say that Charlie Cook has predicted Hillary will run — that there’s a 60 percent chance she will. (I actually think we could and would beat her, but don’t go by me.)

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