A 60 Percent Chance of Snow on Iowa Caucus Day

by John Fund

Today’s Des Moines Register includes a guide to out-of-state tourists attending the caucuses. It reminds them:

Caucus season is snow season, and the likelihood that a storm could blow through at any moment is high. The forecast for Monday, Feb 1 (caucus day, people), holds a 60 percent chance of snow, with temperatures right around freezing. That could change, but, very frequently here, snow and ice cause travel delays and event cancellations, even for the candidates themselves.

Snow can affect caucus results in Iowa. Bad weather puts a premium on the “ground game” — motivating and getting people to the polls — that candidates mount. Veteran Iowa caucus watcher David Yepsen, who spent 34 years reporting on them for the Des Moines Register, writes in today’s Wall Street Journal that Ted Cruz has the best ground game in Iowa, while Donald Trump has the biggest crowds. The biggest unknown factor in the voting on February 1 will be how many new people The Donald will get to attend their first caucus and vote for him. If he brings in lots of new folks, he’s an almost certain winner. If there’s snow, his challenge will be keeping up with the superior Cruz operation, which has been targeting its voters for months.

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