Two polls, one from Clemson University and the other from Opinion Savvy, have been released since I wrote my blog post on SC. Both have Trump in the high 20s, suggesting tomorrow night will be closer than I predicted. Here’s why I discount each poll.
The Opinion Savvy poll says fifty percent of the GOP electorate will be very conservative. No primary has ever had that large a percentage of very conservatives in the voting population, and South Carolina typically has between thirty and thirty-five percent very conservatives. Since we know Trump does less well among the most conservative Republicans, this inaccurate voter sample underestimates Trump’s true level of support. The fact he still gets 27 percent in this poll shows how well he is really doing.
The Clemson poll only includes voters who said they cast ballots in at least two of the state’s last three primary elections. This means that Trump’s new voters, those who are too young to have voted in prior races and those who are no habitual primary voters, are not included in the sample. The fact he still gets 28 percent in this poll again reiterates the breadth of his support.