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Re: We Will Not Attack Iraq...


Jonah: It may be an unpersuasive argument, but it’s still a damn good
question. Giving SH all this time to hide things, organize things (e.g.
attacks on US territory by client terrorist groups) and develop things,
cannot possibly be cost-free. GWB should have made up his mind once for all
at the time of the “axis of evil” speech whether or not he was willing to go
without UN sanction. If he was, he should have done it ASAP–which, from
what I know of logistics, would have been within a matter of weeks. I do
take your point, though, that circumstances–e.g. a surprise attack on US
forces–would alter everything, though I think SH is much to smart to commit
any such blunder. My hopes for war rest on the following, in descending
order of probability: (1) GWB will realize that to stand down the assembled
forces without any attack, and without spontaneous regime change in Iraq,
will be an election-loser for him. (2) There has been frantic development
on some terrific and devastating new weapons system–an infallible
bunker-buster, for example–that GWB wants to have fully tested & in place
for the attack. (3) Colin Powell will decide he needs to spend more time
with his family.


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