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We cannot now rule out an Osirak style strike on Iran by Israel, although this would surely be a political disaster at this delicate moment in the Middle East. A preemptive Israeli strike on Iran might easily tip the balance of Arab anger and really ignite the Arab street against an American invasion of Iraq, or against an American occupation in progress. But how can America handle this problem? In the short term, there is probably little we can do. My guess is that we have secretly negotiated a level of de facto cooperation from Iran for our invasion of Iraq, and we will be loathe to upset that. On the other hand, once the U.S. controls Iraq, we may be able to bring pressure on Iran. But with crises in Korea and Iraq about to explode. This Iranian situation is an even worse nightmare than it would be on its own–if that’s possible. Again, read former Iranian president Rafsanjani’s remarkable threat of suicide/genocide.


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