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Tired of Turk Posts Yet?



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“Mr Lowry,

I agree the Turks are acting flaky and we’ve got to do something about it. However, lets calm down and observe a few points:

1. The Turks are not going to slaughter a bunch of Kurds while the world is watching. It would lead to the near total isolation of Turkey. Remember that Kurd related issues are why the EU shuns them despite our best efforts to defend them. Ticking us off too much more could lead to worldwide sanctions that would cripple their economy.

2. We do have some people in Northern Iraq to liase with them and the 101st Airborne may be headed that way as well as rumored Armor in Jordan. It is not as though they are unsupervised.

3. Turkey has some legitimate concerns regarding refugees, etc. so not everything they do is nefarious. I agree it’s complex and I am particularly worried about their cooperation with Iran regarding Northern Iraq. However, Iran is also not likely to hand the US, which may soon have 3 divisions based in Iraq, an obvious, “human rights”-type reason to confront them, so we have cards to play against them too. I predict that Turkey can be badgered into disgorging any territory they occupy in Northern Iraq through the fear of economic pressure alone. The (in my opinion grossly overstated) elevation of the Kurds to victim status can work for us should the Turks overplay their hand or the Iranians do something delusional.”



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