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The Corner

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Hillary in 2004



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I hate to spoil Kathryn’s hopes that Hillary will be the Democratic nominee, but I have been reading some version of Howard Fineman’s Newsweek piece for as long as I can remember. The common element in all such pieces and the scenarios they lay out is the convention that goes more than one ballot. But I believe that this is impossible. The fact that every state has a primary or caucus; the intensity of media-fed boom-bust cycles; and the inability of candidates to keep supporters and donors on board during primary-season busts–all mean that some candidate will take a lead and win. In effect, the primary season is our convention, and by the time the delegates meet it is all over. You read it here first.

(N.B.: The last second ballot in American convention history was 1956–Democratic veep race–when I was one year old, and when Kathryn was even younger.)



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