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The Corner

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Re: Japan Militarizes



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There is no doubt that the ChiComs are very concerned about Japanese
remilitarization, and the potential for a regional arms race is there.
However, I think there are grounds for insouciance. Both these countries
are in process of demographic implosion. The Japanese (median age 42.0 ) are much further along the
road than the Chinese (31.5), but now that China’s boom generation of the
1960s is through having kids (well, my personal household representative of
that generation tells me SHE is), China’s median age is headed upward.
Urban Chinese, at least, have thoroughly internalized the one-child policy
now, and very few of them relish the prospect of their “little emperor”
going off to get killed in a war. Looking ahead 15-20 years to a possible
Sino-Japanese war, it may have to be fought on the shuffleboard court.



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