The latest Zogby Poll show that the Presidential race has swung from Kerry up seven (50-43) in mid-August to Bush up two (46-44) currently. That is a nine point swing total, a substantial “bounce.” I recall after the Kerry convention failed to impress many pundits on the left were saying that it was just the nature of the electorate this time, that everyone had made up their minds so of course there would be no change, and Bush would not get a bounce either. Looks like that is not going to be the case. Other polls may verify this.
Note that according to Gallup the last time a challenger who went first and got no bounce was followed by an incumbent who went second and got a bounce was in 1972, when Nixon took 49 states.
All this may have nothing to do at all with the personnell changes in the Kerry camp, certainly that’s their story.