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It’s first thing in the morning out here in California, and I’ve just finished looking over the latest polls. First I found a few that didn’t provide news quite as chirpy and uplifting as I’d hoped. But then, since got to get a lot of work done today, and I therefore cannot—simply cannot—spend as much time fretting as I did during much of the weekend, I went to the Horserace Blog. Once again, Jay Cost delivered:

Beware the Gallup Poll. That 49-49 result is due to Gallup’s decision to allocate the remaining undecided voters based upon a tried-and-true formula — 9 to 1 for the challenger.

Pew, on the other hand, decided to allocate the undecideds they found equally. This is what Pew had to say: “Pew’s final survey suggests that the remaining undecided vote may break only slightly in Kerry’s favor.”

So, it appears that Pew’s data told them something that the CW of undecided voters, i.e. their breaking toward the incumbent, is off. Gallup just did what my 9th grade geometry called a “plug and chug.” As Polipundit notes, The New York Times survey indicates the same result as Pew. They found that undecideds do not seem to be breaking for Kerry.

If you, too, need a word from a calming and knowledgeable voice in order to function today, give the Horserace Blog a try.


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