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Critical Condition

NRO’s health-care blog.


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Ezra Klein on Paul Ryan

Ezra Klein has an excellent post up on the recent spate of articles on Paul Ryan. Here is Klein on Ryan’s proposal for Medicare reform:

Ryan’s proposal is an admission of the reality. And so now we get to have a conversation. How would you prefer to see growth slowed? Medicare becomes a private program and you have to buy your own private insurance with checks that pay for less and less? Or Medicare puts you and 40 million of your closest demographic friends into a big pool and goes to the medical industry and says that if they want access to these millions and millions of customers, this is how much they can charge?

This is exactly the conversation we need to be having. Not a demagogic conversation in which each side complains that the other side is “cutting” Medicare: but rather one in which each side says, “here is how we propose to create a fiscally sustainable health care system.”

From 1969 to 2008, the average annual growth in the Consumer Price Index was 4.3%; overall U.S. health spending increased 9.7% per year over the same period. But Medicare? From 1969 to 2008, Medicare grew at an average annual rate of 11.5%. (For those who prefer more recent history, the numbers are 2.8%, 7.0%, and 8.5%, respectively, from 1999 to 2008.) That growth rate is likely to increase as the Baby Boomers start to retire. And there is simply no way for the United States to survive with a Medicare system that is growing at three times the rate of inflation.

Klein breaks down the philosophical difference quite well. Liberals believe that imposing price controls is the way to bring down costs. Unfortunately, price controls have been tried over and over again in the Medicare system, with no long-term effect on Medicare expenditures. This is because doctors and patients will always find ways to outwit the system, and regulators are left playing a game of price-control whack-a-mole, in which Washington will always be a few years behind the curve.

Price controls, in a system where health care is “free” at the point of care, give patients and doctors no incentive to think about value: is it worth spending $100,000 on this high-tech cancer treatment that may extend your life by four months? The British approach is to say no one can have that treatment, because it’s too expensive. The free-market approach is to incentivize companies to set lower prices for their products, so that they will be widely adopted, and to assign higher value to those products that patients find to be genuinely life-enhancing while assigning lower value to incremental advances.

Another side effect of price controls is the destruction of the American pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical technology industries, which employ more people than do Detroit’s Big Three, and do much more for our economy and our quality of life.

The alternative approach, advocated by Paul Ryan, is to let patients buy their own insurance for themselves, instead of getting it from their employers or the government. This way, they can shop for value, and weed out wasteful or needlessly expensive plans. The market-based system incentivizes individuals to act responsibly, which generates enormous savings in aggregate. This is how it’s done in Switzerland, whose government spends only 2.7% of GDP on health care, compared to our government’s 7.4%. Switzerland has universal coverage, with graduated subsidies for those in need, and arguably the highest-quality health care system in the world.

The Swiss have achieved every goal that liberals seek from a health-care system, excepting those for whom abolition of the private sector is also an important objective. Could it be that, just as in foreign affairs, Switzerland is a place for common ground in health care policy?

New on Critical Condition. . .


COMMENTS   7

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   08/04/10 00:32

Klein either misunderstands single payer or is nervous that Paul Ryan's Roadmap might have a future.  Single payer does not cap budgets.  (Rhetorical question: Does Medicare have a budget cap?  Can you say "doc fix"?)  Single payer caps prices and volumes, thereby stifling innovation along all vectors, because if suppliers are not competing on price they are not competing on anything that the patient values, but only on things that the government values.

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 JEM
   08/04/10 09:12

Privatizing Medicare via a voucher system whereby you are granted access to purchase healthcare - and any vendor who wants a piece of the large pool of potential customers has to take all comers - seems a good starting place. Use the existing Medicare Advantage structure, make all Medicare accounts Advantage accounts - cap the subsidy, if necessary means test it, and allow vendors to provide a variety of services - trad PPOs, HMOs, CDHPs, etc with varying service levels and allow the people to pick. It would be a start.

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 JEM
   08/04/10 09:20

And by the way, the Swiss system is not without issues, which any privatized Medicare system would eventually have to deal with - guarenteed issue. And it is driving the Swiss model into the ditch, albeit slowly. But if you required Medicare to create a system where the medical establishment wouldn't need to cross charge back to private employers, that would be a significant accomplishment.

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   08/16/10 13:00

Hi guys, all good points.  John -- our new Critical Condition colleague Michael Cannon has a nice post up, that I'm sure you saw, on the difference between "costs" and "spending."  Nzlsnt, I agree with you that the Swiss system has issues -- what system doesn't?  But I'd rather have their issues than ours.

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   08/19/10 16:02

Mr. Roy,

Sorry for being late in commenting but I just saw your NLT comment. I would only add that some combination of Swiss-style government subsidized, individually-owned high deductible policies and HSA/catastrophic coverage plans (also with government subsidy) might be the way to go. I can see competition betwen the two approaches in which some states and localities replace burdensome employer-provided insurance for government employees with a Mitch Daniels-style HSA program and in which Medicaid is converted into a Swiss-style private insurance subsidy. We are of course very far from the place where our politics (at the federal, state or local level) will allow such experimentation on a large scale.

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   08/22/10 14:55

Hi Pete, I can't disagree with your points. A.

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TonyTTT
   01/19/11 21:05

do you realize that this new healthcare law is actually modeled after this swiss system? They're both compose of a mandate to buy insurance, subsidies for the poor, and the requirement that insurers cover those with pre-existing conditions. And yet you'll probably give the new law no credit.

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