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Critical Condition

NRO’s health-care blog.


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Three Things We’ve Learned from Repeal

This wasn’t the way the Democrats saw things playing out.

After Obamacare was passed (so we could find out what was in it), people were supposed to learn to love it. The House of Representatives certainly wasn’t supposed to pass a bill to repeal it — especially not less than ten months after that glorious day in March when the Democrats effectively told the American people that, when they wanted their opinion, they’d ask for it. Yet all of this has now happened.

The repeal vote confirmed — if there was still any room for doubt — that Republicans and Democrats alike should stop believing the Democrats and their allies when they confidently assert that Obamacare is here to stay; that statism can only advance, not recede; that, regardless of what the people think they want, there’s nothing that anybody can do about this.

The vote also conveyed at least three other things:

1. Repeal is far more popular than Obamacare ever was. Obamacare barely squeaked through the legislative process. In the House, it passed by a margin of seven votes and two percentage points. Repeal passed with ease by 56 votes and twelve percentage points. Moreover, repeal was a reflection of popular will, not a circumvention of it.

2. Very few Democratic representatives genuinely oppose Obamacare. If you opposed Obamacare in March, as 13 current Democrats did, why would you now reverse course and support the legislation — especially after an intervening election that didn’t go so well for your party? It’s hard to imagine what motivation could lead to such a decision, yet ten of the 13 Democrats who had previously, somewhat bravely opposed Obamacare decided this time around to cast their votes in support of its continuation. American voters who had been on the fence about sending a Democrat, even one who had voted against Obamacare, back to Congress were surely taking notice.

Dan Boren (D., Okla.), Mike Ross (D., Ark.), and Mike McIntyre (D., N.C.) are the exceptions to this rule. These three, who voted for repeal, have shown themselves to be true opponents of Obamacare, and they deserve acclaim.

3. This will set up a battle royale in 2012. On March 21, 2010, the day that the House passed Obamacare, Rep. Paul Ryan (R., Wis.) declared, “This moment may mark a temporary conclusion of the health-care debate, but its place in history has not yet been decided. If this passes, the quest to reclaim the American idea is not over. The fight to reapply our founding principles is not finished. It is just a steeper hill to climb, and it is a climb that we will make!”

Several major steps in that climb have now been completed: promoting public knowledge of Obamacare’s almost endless shortcomings, winning the election of 2010, and passing a repeal bill through the House. Several more are still to come. But, in the end, as has been evident all along to anyone who’s been paying attention, this debate will not be settled by any entity other than the one that the Democrats were so determined to defy in the first place: the American citizenry.

Everything now points to the presidential election of 2012. Unlike President Clinton with HillaryCare, President Obama can’t escape Obamacare. Unless the Republicans are foolish enough to send him partial-repeal legislation that he can sign, he is stuck with a horribly unpopular partisan monstrosity that essentially bears his name. He can tack to the middle on everything else, but he cannot — without the Republicans’ help — tack to the middle on Obamacare. He cannot — unless the Republicans let him — make it merely somewhat less terrible and thereby attempt to save it. Apart from the prospect of Republicans playing right into his hands, only three possibilities remain: public opinion must shift; Obama must disavow Obamacare; or he must go down with it.

He wanted it this way. He wanted Obamacare to be “comprehensive legislation,” passed without compromise and without input from the minority party. The fate of his presidency is now tied to whether or not he can convince people that they want this; that they want a government takeover of health care, an unprecedented consolidation of power in Washington, and a colossally expensive new entitlement when we are already $14 trillion in debt. More than anything else, the 2012 presidential election will hinge on these questions.

Republicans have pushed repeal through the House. Now, to push repeal to its conclusion, they must win the presidency. It will be a lot easier to win with someone like Ryan at the top of the ticket, someone who’s been involved in the battles over Obamacare, who knows his stuff inside and out, and who can debate Obama and win. But whoever the nominee is, November 6, 2012, will decide the fate of Obama, the fate of Obamacare, and, to some significant degree, the fate of a nation that remains, as Hamilton wrote in Federalist No. 1, “in many respects the most interesting in the world.”

New on Critical Condition. . .


COMMENTS   31

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   01/19/11 22:00

I disagree with you on not voting for a partial repeal. If you put up a repeal of the individual mandate, which is even less popular than the bill itself (a solid 6 in 10 against it), there is a better chance it will get passed the senate and to Obama. Who will have no choice but to veto it, it is too important to the legislation for him not to veto it. And that gives the Republican Presidential candidate more ammo (I know violent metaphor) to use in a campaign.

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   01/19/11 22:07

Put repeal in the debt limit bill.

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JMody
   01/19/11 22:24

Richard, you're right -- give endless opportunities to show commitment to it. D**th by a thousand c#ts - and he wields the r@z0r (oh, can I say that, John King?.

Leveut - brilliant idea. Hear!Hear! Tie it to debt ceiling, to farm bill, to transportation, to everything, and make it a one-liner -- "The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA - whatever the real name is)is hereby repealed in its entirety. All federal employees hired pursuant to its terms have 30 days' notice from the date of passage of this bill, and are terminated effective the 31st day."

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   01/20/11 00:13

Correct, Richard - though I think the individual mandate is going down in the courts, so eliminating it by legislation will remove the spectacle of 26 states getting together to kick Eric Holder's derriere in a very public way. I might have a repeal of the individual mandate in the can ready to go in case something goes wrong at the Supreme Court.

And Leveut, we agree completely. I would at least make a show of tying an Obamacare repeal to the debt ceiling increase. There is no harm in opening with that as your bargaining position; if you have to give it up at least you're in a better stance to make Obama give up something else extremely painful in the exchange.

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   01/20/11 06:56

The Democrats don't and didn't want the people's opinion, and would not ask for it at any time. The people's opinion is irrelevant to those whose party bears the name of the people. It's not about the people. It's about the power.

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Jack Davis
   01/20/11 15:19

This is how Obamacare has affected me personally.

BEFORE Obamacare, that is up until December 31, 2010, the family deductible on my company-paid medical plan was $300 annually.

AFTER Obamacare, that is on January 1, 2011, the family deductible on my company-paid medical plan rose to $2,800 annually.

You can do the math.

THANKS, OBAMA!

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Charles Greenwood
   01/20/11 15:55

I'm finally old enough to get Gov't Healthcare, so after forking out $2600 more out of my pocket to make it actually functional, I FINALLY HAVE HEALTH CARE.

This is after being swindled for years by the for-profits, with their massive duplication of upper management, perks, gold plated overhead, and so on.

How about a real discussion of what will make this country functional again, including some form of health care available to the working class and maybe even to poor people.

The "we win, you lose" chanting - from both sides - mandates only failure for all.

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Bryan Leed
   01/20/11 15:57

186,000 per second is the speed of light, which could go the distance around our planet seven times in one second. We are $14,000,000,000,000 in debt. Compare the size of those two numbers, it is hard to even comprehend the risk of bankrupting our nation with a number as large as $14 TRILLION dollars! We simply cannot afford Obamacare, it will bankrupt our nation! Repeal Obamacare and vote the bums out of office who put us in this danger of destroying our economy.

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chas
   01/20/11 16:22

"Paul Ryan at the top of the ticket" You've nailed it. If we send another zombie like McLame we only have ourselves to blame when we lose. Paul Ryan is awesome. He must run!!! Hear me Paul Ryan!!!

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Damian
   01/20/11 16:32

And who exactly is going to knock off Obama in 2012? RomneyCare certainly won't have much of an argument on this. Huckabee is clueless on anything remotely outside the realm of social conservatism/christian rights issues. Imagine him having to work hand in hand with other world leaders... George W all over again. Palin is of course the biggest joke of all. Maybe there's a dark-horse out there? But please tell me which one has enough name recognition and clout to bridge the divide between the GOP establishment and tea party activists. Sorry folks, the Republican primary field is simply less than a formidable foe especially with independents who don't want radical neo-cons in office anymore than they'll want an extreme liberal like Obama to stay four more years...

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Charles Romer
   01/20/11 16:39

"Unless the Republicans are foolish enough to send him partial-repeal legislation that he can sign, ..."

This is the key. My betting (fully supported by over 50 years of recent history) -- the Republicans in their relentless pursuit of associate membership in the Ruling Class will let the citizens down again. Bet on it! It is, after all, a 2012 event!

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Andy
   01/20/11 17:04

We have to remember--it doesn't take just 218 (House) plus a GOP president in 2013, it also takes 60 Senators...

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b52apl
   01/20/11 17:25

Damian: On fiscal issues, I think the best candidate is Mitch Daniels. He has a record of cuts as 2 term govenor of Indiana to back it up. I think tough talk is not going to sell without a record to back it up. Administrative experience in both government and the private sector, which he has, is a nice contrast with Obama. He also has both federal and state experience in government. He is also a former Director of the US Office of Management and Budget.

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RegretVoting4Obama
   01/20/11 17:29

Excellent. I totally agree with you!

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John Bunce
   01/20/11 17:50

Mitch Daniels can debate Obama well; win the election and competently get Obamacare repealed.

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Anonymous
   01/20/11 18:06

Consider Chris Christie, current Gov of NJ.
Find clips od him on YouTube and elsewhere-- you will love what you hear.

External Link 

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Anonymous
   01/20/11 18:11

Consider Chris Christie, current Gov of NJ. Former (very successful) federal prosecutor.
Find clips of him on YouTube and elsewhere-- you will love what you hear.

External Link 

External Link 

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Read more about him. Watch more clips. Spread the word. He is truly no nonsense--and exceptionally good at calling out others' BS. Imagine him on stage in a national debate, or at the podium cajoling a gridlocked Congress.

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Laurent
   01/20/11 18:27

In 2012, hold every Democrat senator and representative who votes to keep Obamacare accountable for bankrupting their own state (and in NY, their own county as well)by putting so many more people on medicaid, with no ongoing funding for this unfunded mandate. 60+ GOP senators in 2012! A GOP winner for the White House - Daniels, Pawlenty, Pence, Ryan - go for it!

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Leah In Alabama
   01/20/11 19:10

It's true the Bill belongs solely to Obama now, it is his "Rosemary's Baby" He has accept it and keep just the way it is. Do NOT repeal the Mandate- he needs to own it just like it is!!

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Damian
   01/20/11 19:34

There are a lot of things I like about Daniels. I feel he is a true thinker, instead of just a rhetorician. I also feel that he has a better shot than most at being level-headed in forming some semblance of bi-partisanship. My main issue is, does he have the charisma to beat out all of the high-profile "personalities" that will likely dominate the news cycle come primary season? And if he does, can he beat a president who is still well liked on a personal level if not so much on an issue based level? Does he have it in him to give a defining performance in a speech or debate that will outshine Obama in both substance and style? I'm skeptical that Republicans will pick balance over fire-power...

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