Critical Condition

NRO’s health-care blog.

What Are Obamacare’s Chances of Passing?


With two days to go before a scheduled vote of colossal importance, passage of Obamacare isn’t looking likely — although a great deal will be determined by how much the American people keep the pressure on wavering representatives and counterbalance the intense pressure being applied by the Obama administration and congressional leaders. Having combed over about as much information as I can digest, my best estimate is that 203 representatives are currently leaning toward voting for Obamacare, and 214 are currently leaning toward voting against it. There are some tenuous representatives in each of these two groups, so these numbers are far from exact. But they represent my best guess, based on the collective information available from sites of various political persuasions.    That would leave 14 representatives in the “undecided” camp. Of these, the Democratic leadership would need 13; opponents of Obamacare would need two. Here are the 14, along with whether or not they voted for Obamacare last time (Y or N), whether they voted for the Stupak Amendment (S), and the average result for presidential candidates in their districts over the last three elections:    Jason Altmire (D., Pa.) (N) (S) (GOP +9) (a whopping 60 percent of seniors in his district are on Medicare Advantage, which would be cut dramatically under Obamacare) Melissa Bean (D., Ill.) (Y) (GOP +4)

Allen Boyd (D., Fla.) (N) (GOP +8)

Henry Cuellar (D., Tex.) (Y) (S) (Dem +1)
Bill Foster (D., Ill.) (Y) (GOP +4)
Suzanne Kosmas (D., Fla.) (N) (GOP +6)

Jim Matheson (D., Utah) (N) (S) (GOP +30)

Michael Michaud (D., Maine) (Y) (S) (Dem +7)
Harry Mitchell (D., Ariz.) (Y) (GOP +8)
Solomon Ortiz (D., Texas) (Y) (S) (GOP +1)
Earl Pomeroy (D., N.D.) (Y) (S) (GOP +21)
Nick Rahall (D., W.Va.) (Y) (S) (GOP +6)
Zach Space (D., Ohio) (Y) (S) (GOP +12)
Harry Teague (D., N.M.) (N) (S) (GOP +10)

Five of these representatives have already voted against Obamacare, nine voted for the Stupak Amendment, twelve are from GOP-leaning districts, nine are from districts that lean GOP by more than 5 percentage points, and two are from districts that lean GOP by more than 20 percentage points. These are hardly representatives whose constituents are devotees of the Far Left. They should be open to reasonable persuasion. 


But don’t forget the other wavering representatives, all of whom have yet to cast their votes. Let’s make this a triumph of American democracy. Let’s make Sunday a day when — at long last — the will of the people, expressed by their representatives, resounds victoriously.


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