Out Damn Spot
What if the stain on the dress doesn't reveal President Clinton's DNA?

Although early reports suggest that the FBI in fact has found something worth studying on Monica's garment, the media's mounting anticipation of a smoking gun has made finding one a necessary (though not sufficient) condition for Clinton to suffer significant political damage with the public. It's entirely possible that Clinton had an illicit relationship with Lewinsky and lied about it to the American people, but didn't stain her dress. But any uncertain finding from the dress would look like a huge victory for the White House, which would try to turn that non-discovery into an exoneration no matter what corroborating evidence Ken Starr brings to the table. Clinton's troubles won't end if the dress doesn't talk, but he will be able to hop on a moral hobby horse about why people shouldn't rush to judgment.

The dress is becoming to Clinton what the glove was to O.J. No matter what else happens, it may be remembered as the touchstone for the whole case.

Cold Frost
A top Democratic strategist says his party won't capture the House this November, revising earlier predictions that Democrats would pick up at least the 11 seats needed to win control of the chamber. Last week, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Martin Frost (D., Texas) told the Kentucky Post that he expects there to be nine more Democrats in the House next year--two shy of what it will take to elect a Speaker.

Considering that one of Frost's main responsibilities as DCCC chair is to overstate the Democrats' chances, this is quite an admission (even if Frost has subsequently pulled back). GOP confidence hit rock bottom in the late spring, when several high-ranking Republicans started to worry that they might lose rather than gain seats this fall. It has quietly grown over the last several weeks, however, and now there is even some talk of gaining 20 seats. Barring a Clinton implosion, that seems far-fetched. But House Republicans clearly have a new spring in their steps.