GUN NUTS
Based on their votes earlier this year, Democrats have quite a record to defend: for gun control, against tough and popular juvenile-justice reforms, against enforcing gun laws on the books. But Speaker Denny Hastert is still convinced that Republicans need to pass a gun bill, and Henry Hyde is negotiating with John Conyers to get one out of the Judiciary Committee. To get Conyers to go along, however, the bill will have to be to the left of congressional sentiment. That sentiment is clearly pro-gun, as revealed by 1) the 218-211 vote for the pro-gun Dingell amendment in June; 2) the contemporaneous 235-193 rejection of the McCarthy amendment the administration still wants; and 3) this week's 337 votes for John Doolittle's declaration that the second amendment protects an individual right to bear arms. Keep in mind as well that 30 members of Congress were reluctant to vote for the Dingell amendment because they thought it wasn't pro-gun enough, and were only persuaded to do so by the strategic arguments of Republican leaders and the NRA.

If a bill passes, it will do so with Democratic votes-which means that Hastert will not have achieved the inoculation he wants and will also have lost control of his conference. The more likely outcome is that nothing will pass and the leadership will be embarrassed, as well it should be. In either case, Republicans such as Tom Tancredo (whose district includes Columbine) will be forced to cast tough votes, and pro-gun activists across the country will have another reason to distrust Republican leaders.

Meanwhile, Senate Judiciary Committee chairman Orrin Hatch is doing his part to get the gun/crime bill passed. He has told Republicans that the provision allowing state and local governments to let public schools post the Ten Commandments on their walls should be removed. Otherwise, Pat Leahy, his Democratic counterpart on the Judiciary Committee, will filibuster. The provision is important to social conservatives, not just because of its content but because it establishes the principle that Congress has a right, and a responsibility, to interpret the Constitution independent of the judiciary.

SAFETY FIRST
We've heard over and over again that Republicans have lost the crime issue partly because of gun control. If that's the case, why aren't liberals willing to use the words "gun control"? They always talk about "gun safety" these days, which folds in accidental discharges-a dinky but scary issue-and even gun-safety training of the kind the NRA itself provides. The fact is, even most people who tell pollsters they support gun control don't think of it as a major item on a crime-control agenda.