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Updated 09/25/98 7:25PM

Overturned
Yesterday we pointed out that impeachment would not overturn the last presidential election since Bob Dole will not, praise God, be made President. A former Justice Department official in the Bush administration called to make an additional point: at the time of the Founding impeachment would have meant overturning the election, because the vice-president was the second-placing presidential candidate. This changed with the Twelfth Amendment and the advent of two-candidate tickets, so that now the replacement for the president in the event of removal is his designated heir. Which means that if fear of overturning elections is a constraint on impeachment, the bar for high crimes and misdemeanors should be lower now than in 1789.

Don't Panic
The Beltway mood has turned again; the public reaction to the Clinton videotape has emboldened Clinton supporters and discouraged his critics. Charles Krauthammer's column today asserts that Republican missteps mean there will be no rapid denouement (like resignation). But how likely was a pre-election resignation anyway?

In the real world, nothing much changed this week. It's not as if the tide of public opinion has turned. The public wasn't for impeachment before; it isn't now. But the public had no deep attachment to Bill Clinton (as opposed to his office) before, either, and it doesn't now. The Republican base was likely to turn out in force in November while Democrats stayed home; that's still true too. It is difficult to see any scenario in which voters rise in opposition to Republicans for persecuting Clinton. His support is too passive for that. And his "time to move on" strategy, which tacitly tells voters they can relieve themselves of any public responsibility, will not move voters to action.

That's why Republicans, whose timidity we have often remarked on, have not been spooked. It's not too early to say: No Republican will ever be defeated for voting for Bill Clinton's impeachment.

The Big Flinch
One thing has changed, however, in medialand over the last few weeks: a number of liberal critics of Clinton, such as Maureen Dowd and Bob Herbert and (to some extent) the New York Times itself, have shown their true colors. Tacky and disgraceful as Clinton may be, these pundits simply could not do anything that smacked of making judgments about sex. Nor were they willing to hand Clinton's enemies a victory. (For a victory of sorts it would be, just not an overturning of an election.) Bill Kristol remarks, "Lots of liberal critics have looked into the abyss. . . of endorsing impeachment and pulled back, because they saw Dobson and Bauer and National Review and us and the Wall Street Journal editorial board."

Another group of Clinton-supporting pundits brings to mind conservative journalist M. Stanton Evans's crack that Watergate was the first time he ever liked Richard Nixon. This year some leftists have rallied behind a President whose policies they have never liked. Just read Katha Pollitt, or editorials in the Nation. Finally, Clinton stands for something they believe in: adultery.

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Updated By:
Ramesh Ponnuru - Articles Editor
John J. Miller - National Political Reporter
Kate Dwyer - Editorial Associate


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