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9/11 attacks, contrary to the cliché, did not "change
everything" — not even everything in American politics.
On September 10, the conventional wisdom was that Democrats were
going to win both of this year's gubernatorial races and its two
biggest mayoral races. That's still the conventional wisdom today.
Republicans in Washington privately expect to lose the governor's
mansion in both Virginia and New Jersey. They're giving up too easily.
It's true that
the Republican candidate in Virginia, Mark Earley, ran a lousy campaign
for most of the summer, and true also that Democrat Mark Warner
has slickly repackaged himself as a moderate. Even so, a Mason-Dixon
poll last week had Warner's lead within the margin of error. And
Virginia remains a fairly solid Republican state.
The polls in
New Jersey, admittedly, look worse. A Newark Star-Ledger
poll this week had Democrat Jim McGreevey up 12 points over Republican
Bret Schundler. But McGreevey hasn't been able to crack 50. And
the poll doesn't provide much evidence for the conventional wisdom
that Schundler is "too conservative" for the state. Only
32 percent of the electorate thought Schundler was "too conservative,"
compared to 33 percent who thought McGreevey was "too liberal."
Forty-seven percent thought Schundler's views were "just about
right," while 52 percent thought McGreevey was. On the ideological
issues, the candidates have fought to a draw. New Jersey is a notoriously
late-deciding state. And Schundler has a history of coming from
behind to win.
President Bush
isn't planning to campaign for the Republican candidates either
in New Jersey or even in Virginia. This is for both good reasons
(he's busy doing more important things) and bad (a self-defeating
reluctance to spend political capital on races that are assumed
to be lost).
But whatever
his calculations, there is no good reason for Republicans not to
devote resources to these races. They are, after all, the only important
races going on this November. (Yes, that excludes Mike Bloomberg's
bid for mayor of New York.) Are Earley and Schundler likely to win?
Only a fool would say so with certainty. Can they win? Absolutely.
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