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planners at the Pentagon don't look forward to winter — the
rugged terrain of Afghanistan presents enough challenges when the
weather is pleasant. Yet some have speculated about a potential
upside, namely that cold temperatures will make Osama bin Laden
and his subterranean hideout an easier mark for U.S. heat sensors
(assuming that's where he is, rather than in the basement of some
mosque).
Things might
not be so simple, judging from the FBI's experience with Eric
Rudolph, the man believed to be responsible for the bombing
at the 1996 Olympic Games in Atlanta. Until bin Laden came along,
Rudolph was the member of the FBI's ten-most-wanted list operating
under the biggest bounty, at $1 million. (Bin Laden is a $5-million
fugitive.)
Two years ago
in the New Yorker, Tony Horwitz described the search for
Rudolph, who is still at large, as "one of the most intensive
manhunts in American history." Investigators had hoped helicopters
armed with infrared scopes to detect body heat would reveal Rudolph's
hiding place, which is suspected to be in western North Carolina
— an area full of mountains and riddled with caves, just like
the roughly 400-square-mile tract of Afghanistan where bin Laden
is suspected to be.
Horwitz showed
how hard it is to find a cave, let alone a person who might be hiding
in one, by going on a short tour with Darren Free, "a North
Carolina man who is an expert at finding underground sites."
Wrote Horwitz: "'If you don't know what to look for, you can
walk right by,' Free told me. To prove his point, he drove me into
the mountains and scrambled down a woody slope, then asked, 'Can
you find me a cave?' I couldn't, but only ten feet away lay a narrow
crevasse concealed by a tangle of rhododendron. Free led me down
into the cavity and we quickly entered a level chamber that we could
comfortably stand up in. It was warm enough for us to shed our winter
coats. Free explained that the temperature is constant in most caves
— between fifty-five and sixty degrees. 'Warm in the winter,
cool in the summer,' he said. With his flashlight he showed me a
clear stream flowing along one side of the cave and down into the
earth. 'There's his water supply, and he's got a latrine, too,'
Free said." The point is that caves aren't just good hiding
places; they're excellent hiding places, and better ones than many
people realize.
Horwitz's article
also shows how difficult it is to find somebody when the locals
won't cooperate. Plenty of residents near Rudolph's presumed hideout
regard him as a kind of folk hero and won't cooperate with the authorities.
(The story, "Run, Rudolph, Run," is recommended reading
for anybody interested in the bin Laden manhunt. It's not available
online, but may be found in the New Yorker's March 15, 1999
issue.)
Complicating
matters further are the death rumors. Last week, NRO discussed
a report in the Chinese press claiming bin Laden had been killed.
Perhaps bin Laden is behind these rumors, trying to sow confusion
among his enemies. There may come a time when we just don't know
whether bin Laden is dead or alive — a
situation that accrues to the terrorist's advantage.
Last week,
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld suggested that bin Laden could
remain a fugitive for some time: "There are a lot of countries.
He's got a lot of money, he's got a lot of people who support him,
and I just don't know whether we'll be successful" (After that
quote appeared in USA Today, Rumsfeld backed off from its
apparent pessimism: "Do we expect to get him? You bet we expect
to get him.")
Let's hope
the government has more success finding bin Laden than it has had
finding Eric Rudolph.
Correction
On Friday we reported that Thursday night's debate between New Jersey
gubernatorial candidates Bret Schundler and Jim McGreevey was the
last of their campaign. In fact they debated again yesterday.
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