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Updated 11/2/98 6:30PM
Indiana will close its polls before any other state, at 6:00 pm EST.
That means Democrats will register a net gain in the Senate of one seat
early on, since Evan Bayh (D.) appears likely to crush his GOP opponent
for the seat now held by retiring Sen. Dan Coats (R.). The result won't
reveal much, but two other Indiana contests might: the 9th and 10th
Congressional Districts. The former is a seat currently occupied by
retiring Rep. Lee Hamilton (D.), but it leans Republican in presidential
elections. GOP candidate Jean Leising must win if her party hopes to
post modest gains in the House. If Baron Hill retains it for the
Democrats, consider it a bad omen for Republican hopes nationally. The
other seat is held by Rep. Julia Carson (D.), narrowly favored to hang
on against conservative Republican challenger Gary Hofmeister. A GOP
upset, however, will cast doubt on the low-ball predictions of a one to
three-seat Republican pickup.
At 7:00 pm, polls close in seven states. Verdicts then will come down in
several key races: Senate contests in Kentucky and South Carolina, plus
Georgia governor. Republicans ought to win in Kentucky and Georgia, but
not South Carolina. Again, if these patterns don't hold (say, a
Democratic win in Kentucky or a GOP upset in South Carolina), this may
represent the beginnings of a national trend. Also, the House races in
Kentucky's 4th and 6th Congressional Districts bear watching. If the GOP
doesn't retain the first, consider it bad news for Republicans--Gex
Williams (R.) is a much stronger candidate than most pundits have
assumed; he should win. If Republicans grab the 6th district seat,
there's a good chance the state's entire Congressional delegation will
consist of Republicans. At 7:30 pm, voting will finish in North
Carolina. Over the weekend, most pundits were predicting Democrat John
Edwards to oust Republican Sen. Lauch Faircloth.
At 8:00 pm, 15 states will finish voting. Only one of them features a
close statewide election with potential national importance: Maryland
governor. Also keep an eye on Michigan's 12th District; if GOP
challenger Leslie Touma unseats Rep. Sander Levin (D.), Republicans will
want to uncork the champagne and get ready for a fun night, and
Democrats may want to hit the sack. Two more bellwethers are the
Pennsylvania races to succeed retiring Reps. McHale (D.) and McDade
(R.). The CW is that Republicans have a better shot at picking up the
McHale seat than of keeping the McDade seat.
By 9:00 pm, 12 more states will complete their work. Expect tell-tale
results on Alabama governor, Minnesota governor, New York Senate, and
Wisconsin Senate. A Democrat should win the Alabama election - though
Fob James has come from behind before - but the other three races could
go either way.
At 10:00 pm, get ready for a verdict on the Nevada Senate race. At 11:00
pm, expect results from the state of Washington on its Senate contest
plus its ballot initiative on racial preferences. Republicans may want
to turn off their televisions before 11:30 pm, which is when the
California polls close. Indications suggest a GOP bloodbath, but
Republican Matt Fong still has a shot at unseating Sen. Barbara Boxer
(D.).
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