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Updated 11/2/98 6:30PM

How to Watch the Elections
Don't feel like waiting up all night for election results? Here's a bettor's guide for the early-to-bed crowd.

Indiana will close its polls before any other state, at 6:00 pm EST. That means Democrats will register a net gain in the Senate of one seat early on, since Evan Bayh (D.) appears likely to crush his GOP opponent for the seat now held by retiring Sen. Dan Coats (R.). The result won't reveal much, but two other Indiana contests might: the 9th and 10th Congressional Districts. The former is a seat currently occupied by retiring Rep. Lee Hamilton (D.), but it leans Republican in presidential elections. GOP candidate Jean Leising must win if her party hopes to post modest gains in the House. If Baron Hill retains it for the Democrats, consider it a bad omen for Republican hopes nationally. The other seat is held by Rep. Julia Carson (D.), narrowly favored to hang on against conservative Republican challenger Gary Hofmeister. A GOP upset, however, will cast doubt on the low-ball predictions of a one to three-seat Republican pickup.

At 7:00 pm, polls close in seven states. Verdicts then will come down in several key races: Senate contests in Kentucky and South Carolina, plus Georgia governor. Republicans ought to win in Kentucky and Georgia, but not South Carolina. Again, if these patterns don't hold (say, a Democratic win in Kentucky or a GOP upset in South Carolina), this may represent the beginnings of a national trend. Also, the House races in Kentucky's 4th and 6th Congressional Districts bear watching. If the GOP doesn't retain the first, consider it bad news for Republicans--Gex Williams (R.) is a much stronger candidate than most pundits have assumed; he should win. If Republicans grab the 6th district seat, there's a good chance the state's entire Congressional delegation will consist of Republicans. At 7:30 pm, voting will finish in North Carolina. Over the weekend, most pundits were predicting Democrat John Edwards to oust Republican Sen. Lauch Faircloth.

At 8:00 pm, 15 states will finish voting. Only one of them features a close statewide election with potential national importance: Maryland governor. Also keep an eye on Michigan's 12th District; if GOP challenger Leslie Touma unseats Rep. Sander Levin (D.), Republicans will want to uncork the champagne and get ready for a fun night, and Democrats may want to hit the sack. Two more bellwethers are the Pennsylvania races to succeed retiring Reps. McHale (D.) and McDade (R.). The CW is that Republicans have a better shot at picking up the McHale seat than of keeping the McDade seat.

By 9:00 pm, 12 more states will complete their work. Expect tell-tale results on Alabama governor, Minnesota governor, New York Senate, and Wisconsin Senate. A Democrat should win the Alabama election - though Fob James has come from behind before - but the other three races could go either way.

At 10:00 pm, get ready for a verdict on the Nevada Senate race. At 11:00 pm, expect results from the state of Washington on its Senate contest plus its ballot initiative on racial preferences. Republicans may want to turn off their televisions before 11:30 pm, which is when the California polls close. Indications suggest a GOP bloodbath, but Republican Matt Fong still has a shot at unseating Sen. Barbara Boxer (D.).

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Updated By:
Ramesh Ponnuru - Articles Editor
John J. Miller - National Political Reporter
Kate Dwyer - Editorial Associate


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