The good news for Virginia Republicans is that they look ready to seize
complete control of the statehouse in today's legislative elections. The
bad news for Republicans nationally, however, is that it probably means
next to nothing. And that, oddly, may be a good thing.
The returns won't be counted until this evening, but the GOP believes it
will take over Richmond's House of Delegates, where the Democrats
currently enjoy a one-seat lead, and build on a two-vote margin in the
state senate. This would mark a historic achievement, as Virginia, like so
many of its southern neighbors, was pretty close to a one-party Democratic
state until recently. It would also set up the Republicans nicely for
redistricting following the 2000 census. A win today may secure an extra
seat or two for Republicans in Congress by 2004.
Virginia's state elections wouldn't normally attract much national
attention. But they're held in odd-numbered years, meaning they face
almost no competition for coverage on election day. The political class in
Washington inevitably gazes across the Potomac and wonders whether returns
in the Old Dominion are tea leaves for national elections 12 months later.
If Virginia Republicans have the strong showing they expect, look for
press releases from the Republican National Committee declaring the
results a harbinger for next year's presidential and congressional races.
If they don't, expect the Democrats to hit the fax machines early.
No matter what happens, let's hope the Virginia results don't foreshadow
anything. This year's races have been almost completely devoid of
meaningful political content. Who has the best plan to fight traffic
congestion? Who will spend more on education? Who will keep guns out of
schools? To the extent that issues are on the agenda at all, they're
small-bore New Democrat issues. We're all soccer moms now.
Granted, local elections often lack ideological charge. Yet the 1999
Virginia contests are quite a letdown from two years ago, when Republican
Gov. Jim Gilmore cruised to victory on his simple promise to eliminate the
state's hated car tax. The Republicans may party in Richmond Tuesday
night, but they won't have a mandate to do much but build more roads and
schools.
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) argues that newspapers are hypocritical
when they run unsigned editorials to limit corporate soft money. "The
New
York Times," he said recently on
Capital Gang, "has had 114 editorials on
campaign-finance reform since the beginning of 1997. That's about one
every nine days. They are a corporate soft-money advocacy outfit." Now
read today's
Washington Post editorial listing its endorsements for the
elections in northern Virginia: 23 Democrats and 7 Republicans. Those
candidates who weren't endorsed have no time to respond! Keep that in mind
the next time the
Post complains about corporations spending money on
politics.
