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about everyone expects Republican Mark Earley to lose the governor's
election in Virginia today. The polls show Democrat Mark Warner
leading, current governor and RNC chairman Jim Gilmore appeared
to distance himself from his would-be successor over the weekend,
and White House press secretary Ari Fleischer warned that off-year
races shouldn't be understood as referenda on President Bush.
But today's
results won't be entirely bad for Virginia Republicans. Democrats
are not exactly sweeping the state. The GOP's attorney general candidate,
Jerry Kilgore, looks like a sure winner. Republicans also appear
ready to expand their majority in the House of Delegates —
a majority they achieved for the first time in history just two
years ago. There are 100 seats in the House, and Republicans currently
occupy 52 of them — or 53, counting an independent who votes
with the GOP. When all the results are in, Republicans say they
expect to control between 58 and 60 seats.
That's an impressive
pick-up in any year, let alone one in which the man on the top of
the ticket creates headwind. Republican gains, assuming they materialize,
will come from redistricting and a rash of Democratic retirements.
Whatever their causes, though, they will serve as a powerful check
on any Warner administration that takes roost in Richmond.
So today's
elections won't be a defeat for Virginia Republicans. They may,
however, be a defeat for Mark Earley, who ran a lackluster campaign
that never found the single-issue focus that propelled George Allen
(parole) and Jim Gilmore (car tax) to victory in 1993 and 1997.
There will plenty of recriminations — Gilmore didn't do enough
to help Earley, primary opponent John Hager did too much damage,
and so on — but ultimate responsibility for the loss must lie
with the candidate.
Even in losing
the gubernatorial race, Virginia Republicans don't need to hold
their heads low. "Virginia will be just as Republican tomorrow
as it is today," promises Ed Matricardi, executive director
of the Virginia GOP.
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