EXIT GINGRICH
The assumption of House watchers has been that Newt Gingrich would fight to the last ballot to keep the Speaker's gavel. Think again. Gingrich may decide to bow out and throw his support to another candidate if he sees he won't have the votes to stay in January, according to a source close to GOP leaders. By making a graceful exit, Gingrich might figure, he could perform a final service to the party he led to majority status in Congress.

ASHCROFT 2000 RIP?
Gov. Mel Carnahan (D., Mo.) has announced he will challenge Sen. John Ashcroft's (R., Mo.) re-election. It's an ominous move for the freshman senator's presidential bid. Sen. Phil Gramm had a tougher race than usual following his disastrous 1996 run for the presidency, and he was running against a political nobody. Gov. Carnahan is politically formidable, and could give Ashcroft a run for his money even without the distractions, missed votes, and potential embarrassments of a presidential campaign. Ashcroft now must worry about the Dornan effect.

On the other hand, Ashcroft would be able to convert any funds raised in a presidential campaign to his Senate race if he lost the former. But handicappers already question how much he can raise.

THE LONG AND WINDING ROAD
Title of GOPAC's fall meeting, being held this weekend at the Willard Hotel in Washington, D.C.: "Election 1998: Next Step to the Permanent Majority." Hey, they didn't say whose.