SPEAKER LIVINGSTON, WE PRESUME
Rep. Bob Livingston (R., La.) is an improvement over Newt Gingrich in one sense: He has a different name. He won't have Gingrich's high negatives (which were actually lower than President Clinton's personal negatives on election day)--at least at first. And Livingston has a more solid conservative record than Gingrich did.

There's something to be said for new faces. But many Republicans are uneasy. If the budget deal hurt them last week, they ask, does it make sense to elevate the chairman of the Appropriations Committee? (Livingston has tried, ludicrously, to deflect any blame for the fiasco.) If the GOP is too identified with the South, what's the point of moving from Georgia to Louisiana? And Livingston, like Gingrich, can be erratic and petulant: he submitted a 15-point list of parochial demands to Gingrich last week, then quickly retracted it. Also, his temper is legendary.

Most of the Republicans who express these sentiments are backing Livingston anyway. They want to get the leadership election over with, and by the weekend Livingston was beginning to look inevitable. Rep. Jim Talent (R., Mo.), who edged right up to the starting line before balking, can now run for governor of Missouri in 2000. Rep. Chris Cox (R., Calif.), on the other hand, is drawing unflattering comparisons to Ross Perot: He announced his candidacy for Speaker on Friday night on Larry King Live and quit two days later.

DUNN DEAL
Rep. Jennifer Dunn (R., Wash.) has announced her candidacy for Majority Leader, joining Rep. Steve Largent (R., Okla.) in a challenge to Dick Armey (R., Tex.). Armey might have withstood Largent--whom colleagues view as telegenic, but a trouble-maker. Dunn's a more serious threat. She is a GOP loyalist on all issues but abortion (which she does not promote aggressively a la Christie Whitman or Jim Greenwood). Perhaps more important, Republicans concerned about the gender gap may find it hard to resist voting for her. Armey also suffers from Gingrich's downfall. Newt allies have borne him no love since the botched coup of July 1997, and don't believe Armey should remain standing. He may not deserve to lose his job, but it's definitely in jeopardy.

Majority Whip Tom DeLay (R., Texas) will be re-elected without opposition, but the GOP's fourth-ranking Conference Chairman John Boehner (R., Ohio) may lose to Rep. J. C. Watts (R., Okla.). Like Dunn, Watts will benefit from the diversity factor (he's the only black Republican in Congress), but he also gave perhaps the best speech at the 1996 GOP convention.

JUDGE NOT
The Supreme Court will not review the Wisconsin Supreme Court's decision in June to uphold Milwaukee's school choice program. "The families who are enjoying the benefits of this wonderful program can rest a little easier. Three years of legal uncertainty are over," said Clint Bolick of the Institute for Justice. School choice supporters actually had been hoping the Supreme Court would clear up the constitutional questions lingering over school choice--and inhibiting its political success. Nonetheless, this represents a small victory for education reformers; it is the most definitive statement yet from the Supreme Court on the issue. Current cases in Arizona, Maine, Ohio, and Vermont are possible candidates for further review.