HIGH WATTAGE
Rep. J.C. Watts (R., Okla.) has to be considered the underdog in his bid to unseat Rep. John Boehner (R., Ohio) as the GOP Conference Chair, the fourth-ranking House leadership position. But the race looks extremely close, and an upset may be in the making.

On Wednesday, Watts released a five-page letter to Republican colleagues explaining the rationale for his candidacy. "I have grown weary of the White House spin machine winning the daily message war," he writes, squarely laying the blame for the GOP's election-day debacle on the doorstop of Boehner's communications shop. Watts also pledged to bring more order to the conference, committing to start meetings on time and--in an appeal that will resonate with many members--pledging an end to staff leaks.

Boehner may be hurt by the success of Majority Leader Dick Armey, even though the two have endorsed each other. Signs suggest that Armey will keep his position, despite challenges from Rep. Jennifer Dunn (R., Wash.) and Rep. Steve Largent (R., Okla.). The GOP probably doesn't want to be seen as beating back the only black Republican in Congress and the only woman running for a major leadership post. Many members will have made up their minds about the Boehner-Watts contest before the GOP conference meets. But keep an eye on the Armey-Dunn dynamic in handicapping the Conference Chair race.

DEPT. OF MEANINGLESS TRIVIA
House Republicans will vote on their new leadership next Wednesday, November 18. That day, incidentally, is Rep. J.C. Watts' 41st birthday. His opponent, Rep. John Boehner, will celebrate his 49th birthday one day earlier.

GEPHARDT'S CHOICE
Conventional wisdom says that House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt is less likely to pursue the Democratic presidential nomination now that his party is so close to recapturing the House. He is more inclined to stay put in the hopes of becoming Speaker, say many pundits. But consider: For the Democrats to regain the House in 2000, they will probably have to win the presidential contest as well. And if a Democrat is capable of winning the White House, why shouldn't it be Dick Gephardt? Missouri has late candidate filing deadlines, which would allow Gephardt to test the waters against Vice President Gore without simultaneously losing his day job. Also, serving as Speaker to a President of the same party essentially demotes the Speakership to a glorified Majority Leader position. Gephardt is ambitious, and has run for President before. Don't count him out.