IF HE CAN'T MAKE IT THERE . . .
The Republican establishment settled on its dream ticket for 2000 a year ago: the two Georges. Bush and Pataki, Texas and New York, pro-life and pro-choice, Protestant and Catholic - all the bases would be covered, right? Not so fast. Today's Hotline includes a recent Marist College poll finding that voters in Gov. Pataki's New York prefer Al Gore to Bush by two percentage points, even though several recent surveys show Bush would handily beat Gore nationally if the election were held today. Worse, New Yorkers prefer Gore to Pataki 47 to 43 per cent.

There will be a tremendous amount of pressure among Republicans to fight for New York in 2000, especially because California is now a Democrat-leaning state and the Republicans have the option of tapping Pataki for their VP slot. Yet pro-lifers would strongly object to this course of action and may not turn out in reliable numbers. And even if putting a pro-abortion candidate on the ticket and putting a Catholic on the ticket were good ideas, that doesn't mean it's smart to nominate a pro-abortion Catholic. The Catholics within the GOP's reach are, in general, active Catholics for whom this would be a slap in the face. If Pataki can't even deliver his home state -- and the Marist poll suggests he wouldn't -- the rationale for picking him vanishes completely.