John McCain had an important advantage going into last night's debate: He
wasn't actually there, although that probably wasn't clear to most
television viewers. As a result, he was the only candidate looking
steadily into the camera at all times. It was also smart of him to ask
Gary Bauer a question about campaign-finance reform: Bauer's support of it
provides McCain with some conservative cover for his position. That he
needs the cover was revealed by the loud applause — by Arizona
Republicans, keep in mind — for Alan Keyes's defense of unlimited
political donations by individuals. (The other big applause line of the
night was Steve Forbes's attribution of our economic strength to the
policies of Ronald Reagan.)
McCain also took the opportunity to take a shot at Clinton and Gore for
the campaign money that "poured in from China and Indonesia" in 1996; it
was nice to see him directing fire at Democrats for a change. McCain is
running a commercial on his willingness to shut down the government to cut
pork. If he keeps up with that kind of message, and knocks off the attacks
on how recklessly large Bush's tax cut is, he might get a second look — or
maybe a first — from many conservatives.
Another candidate who had a good night was Steve Forbes. After a
disappointing performance in last week's debate, he was back to a
free-market ideological message. His casual reference to the 1915-1934
occupation of Haiti demonstrated that he's knowledgeable, and he made a
smart point about the folly of the arms embargo on Bosnia earlier this
decade. He also gave an effective answer to Alan Keyes on taxes, with a
touch of humor: "And as for those IRS agents, I will support job
retraining. I'm compassionate."
Alan Keyes got a dumb opening question about the supposed "contradiction"
between wanting to close down the Department of Education and favoring
school prayer. (Both are consistent with federalism: On school prayer,
it's federal court rulings, after all, to which social conservatives
object.) It gave him the chance to explain that school choice would go a
long way to addressing concerns about the moral climate of the schools.
His closing statement — explaining that elections ought not to be about
who can do the most for voters — was excellent.
Keyes's discussion of taxes was less compelling. He favors a 23 percent
sales tax. (This is a term of art among sales-tax advocates. Most people
think that if you slap an extra $30 tax on a $100 purchase, that's a 30
percent tax. The sales-taxers say it's 23 percent, because 30 divided by
130 is 23 percent.) Asked whether the sales tax would be regressive, Keyes
responded that "[t]he present tax system, which allows you to escape
taxation if you're wealthy enough to pay accountants and lawyers, is what
disproportionately hits the poor and working middle class people of this
country." This is a widespread sentiment, but Keyes ought to know that
folks at the upper end of the income scale actually pay a wildly
disproportionate share of federal taxes. For one thing, the alternative
minimum tax makes it hard to "escape" taxes.
Orrin Hatch was atrocious. He repeated his claim to have been one of the
people who convinced Reagan to cut taxes. He was also Dole-like in harping
on his service in the Senate. The second sentence in his answer on taxes?
"I'm on the Senate Finance Committee." (At least he didn't add, ". . . and
I'm here to help.") His only good moment in the debate was a cheap shot at
Gov. Bush, who he said would learn a lot in eight years as Hatch's veep.
If he'd had the chance, Bush should have said, "You're right. I haven't
spent two decades on Senate committees. My loss."
Gov. Bush continued his strategy of avoiding major gaffes and staying out
of scraps with his rivals. He gave a good supply-side answer to a question
about how he would modify his tax plan if the surplus disappeared. The
debate will have gone well for Bush if it gives him a better idea of what
the later ones will be like. The question about the biography of Dean
Acheson — which Bush had said he recently read — was a higher form of the
gotcha game Andy Hiller played with his foreign-leaders quiz. We haven't
checked, but our bet is someone in Austin is going through Bush's remarks
right now to see if there are any similar questions he needs to be
prepared for.
Gary Bauer was the best debater of the lot, as articulate and less
hyperbolic than Keyes. The substance of his remarks - more shots at Forbes
over Social Security, more vaguely protectionist comments - was, however,
often dismaying. Bauer had a nice explanation for his opposition to the
estate tax: "[T]he money was already taxed once. . . . Double taxation has
never been an American principle." Too bad Bauer's own tax plan is
premised on double taxation.
Speaking of taxes, it was nice to hear Judy Woodruff remark that workers
pay a 15.3 percent payroll tax. Usually journalists pretend that there is
an "employer's share" of the tax, even though that share comes straight
out of wages. Now if Woodruff would make this same point about
health-insurance premiums, it could revolutionize the reporting on that
issue.
Woodruff's colleague Jeff Greenfield suggested that no-hope candidates
should be excluded from the debates. It will be interesting to see whether
he sticks with this principle next fall, when it could mean helping the
Republicans by excluding Patrick Buchanan.
