SLIPPING THE NOOSE, ONCE AGAIN
Contrary to conventional wisdom, the tide is now running against impeachment, not for it. Republicans from the Northeast are starting to announce their opposition, and without a member-to-member handholding exercise to steady nerves, it will be difficult to keep enough of the GOP conference in line to pass impeachment on the House floor. In Connecticut, for example, both Republican Gov. John Rowland and GOP Rep. Christopher Shays have criticized impeachment; this isolates Rep. Nancy Johnson, the state's only other significant Republican, who has not yet committed herself either way.

In New York, the opposition of Amo Houghton, Peter King, and mercifully outgoing Sen. Al D'Amato may sway Mike Forbes and Rick Lazio. (Houghton, fresh from a 68 per cent re-election victory, announced his opposition in a New York Times op-ed today. He concludes, "Oh, by the way, it is almost Christmas time. Anyone for a touch of forgiveness?" We'll think about it, but only if Houghton's contrite.) To make matters worse, several solid conservatives, such as Rep. Jay Dickey (Ark.) and Billy Tauzin (La.), are on the fence. Henry Hyde has started to contact colleagues, asking them not to declare their position on impeachment until the committee has completed its work. But if it starts to become clearer that impeachment won't succeed, look for more defections. The only close vote right now is a vote to impeach.

Clinton's legal defense before the House Judiciary Committee is responsible for none of this improvement in his fortunes. Tuesday's witnesses may even have slightly damaged the President's cause. Sean Wilentz's pompous moralizing quickly grew tiresome. Democratic former Rep. Wayne Owens blamed the committee for introducing 7- and 8-year olds to the concept of oral sex, earning a sharp and eloquent rebuke from Rep. Mary Bono (Calif.), who suggested that Clinton might bear some of the blame. And a real highlight was Rep. Bob Goodlatte (Va.) reading excerpts of Richard Ben-Veniste's book on Watergate that essentially contradicted the gist of Ben-Veniste's argument before the committee.

Today's testimony went better: Bill Weld was characteristically clever and sharp. But the give-and-take of committee deliberations stopped mattering long ago. In the privacy of their offices, members of Congress are calculating their moves. The weather may change a few more times in the next two weeks. But right now odds are against impeachment.

PHRASES HAVE CONSEQUENCES
Balint Vazsonyi of the Center for the American Founding suggests that Republicans stop referring to the "budget surplus" and start calling it the "tax overpayment."