|
 he
White House seems to be under the impression that it needs to pass
something called a "stimulus bill" and therefore has to
give the Democrats whatever it takes to get them to agree to one.
Journalist Mickey Kaus made the political argument for its position
succinctly on his website
a few days ago: "Will voters really remember in November, if
there's still a recession, that it was Sen. Daschle who blocked
the [stimulus] bill? Seems unlikely. Will voters blame the 'in'
party that controls the White House and House[?] Seems highly likely."
We're not so
sure that this calculation is correct. What President Bush needs
is not so much a stimulus bill as a good economy, and it looks extremely
unlikely that a stimulus bill is going to help him get one. If there's
still a recession in November — or, more to the point, voters
believe there's still a recession, since perceptions can lag (as
they did in the 1992 election) — the Republicans will get hurt
whether or not a stimulus bill passes. Arguably, they'll get hurt
worse if it passes: The Democrats will be able to argue that Bush
had two chances to fix the economy, the spring tax cut and the stimulus,
and failed. They will imply that the recession would be over if
only the president had gone further in their direction in the stimulus
package.
If the economy
is well into a recovery, on the other hand, Bush won't need to have
passed a stimulus. The public will give him credit just for being
there, and he can say his spring tax cuts sped the recovery.
Michael Barone
reports, in his latest U.S.
News and World Report
column, that a poll taken earlier this month by Democratic strategists
James Carville, Stanley Greenberg, and Bob Shrum said that slightly
more voters would blame Democrats than Republicans if a stimulus
bill fails to pass by Christmas.
A prominent
Republican strategist argues that Daschle created a problem for
himself when he said that two-thirds of his caucus would have to
agree to a stimulus for it to fly. "It just shows weakness,"
he says. "Why let Tom Daschle off the hook?" The strategist
does allow that he's "probably in the minority" in thinking
that the president can let the stimulus bill fail.
Moore
Stimulus
Stephen
Moore.
On
the Site
John
J. Miller on remaking the INS.
|
