6/20/00 4:45 p.m.
Roe-ing through the Rapids
New polls show promise.

By NR's Ramesh Ponnuru & John J. Miller

ll signs suggest pro-lifers won't like the Supreme Court's pending decision on partial-birth abortion, but over the weekend came more evidence that the right-to-life movement picked a winner when it chose the strategy of focusing on partial-birth abortion five years ago. A new Los Angeles Times poll shows support for the Roe v. Wade decision slipping sharply over the last nine years. In 1991, 56 percent said they supported Roe. That figure is now down to 43 percent.

The partial-birth-abortion debate is not the only explanation for the drop. The prevalence of sonograms during pregnancy has probably also played a big role, along with changing generational attitudes and economic prosperity. But by zeroing in on a particular abortion procedure — one that Justice Sandra Day O'Connor labeled "gruesome" during oral arguments in April — pro-lifers forced a reluctant media to describe the skull-crushing, brain-sucking reality of what partial-birth abortion really is: infanticide.

In this sense, the Court's anticipated pro-choice ruling may actually be a boon to George W. Bush, as it will make his soft-peddled pro-life line appear positively moderate. Democrats and liberals in the media have worked hard to make pro-lifers look like extremists; but now it's abortion-on-demand that seems extreme.

Other interesting data from the L.A. Times poll: Just under two-thirds of Americans say they don't know the Bush and Gore positions on abortion, with women more likely than men to be uninformed. When they're told Bush is pro-life, 27 percent of women say that makes them more likely to vote for Bush and 13 percent say less likely; when they hear Gore is pro-choice, 19 percent of women say they're more likely to support Gore, and 23 percent say less likely.