Capital Gains
Four ways Bush can use his popularity.

By John J. Miller & Ramesh Ponnuru
October 12, 2001 5:30 p.m.

he White House knows that President Bush's approval rating isn't really 90 percent, because Americans aren't really rating the president's performance when pollsters call them. Instead, they're announcing whose side they're on in the war against terrorism. You'd get the same result if you asked, "If Osama bin Laden were the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004, would you support Bush or bin Laden?" (Those trust-in-government numbers that have been cheering liberals reflect the same tendency.)

More evidence that Bush shouldn't overestimate the depth of his support is that 46 percent of the public believes that Al Gore would be doing "about the same" as president right now (according to the latest CNN/USA Today poll), versus 9 percent who think he'd be doing better and 40 percent who think he'd be doing worse. President Bush's political advisors fully expect in the coming months that the approval rating will drop: maybe to ten points higher than it was on September 10, or maybe all the way back down.

Yet now is indisputably a time when Americans want to support their president, and it's a moment Bush should use to his advantage. Liberals have urged Bush not to "exploit" his wartime popularity to pass his domestic agenda. Certainly it would be wrong of Bush to suggest that Democrats are unpatriotic if they balk at some of his policies. Democrats should avoid that sort of rhetoric, too, which really would be exploitative and dangerous. But if Bush believes that a particular policy would in some way aid the war effort, he should be free to point that out. And he is under no obligation, whether or not the policy in consideration is related to the war, to pretend that he is less popular than he is. Liberals are offering a tacit deal: They'll support the war in return for no "divisive" conservative initiatives from Bush. That deal should be rejected.

Bush will use some of the fresh political capital he has acquired to win approval for his education agenda, faith-based initiative, and new tax cuts — proposals that would have required his attention this fall even if we had not been attacked. But Bush may find that progress in four other areas is now attainable.

1. Promoting free trade: The House Ways and Means Committee last week approved a bill granting the president trade-promotion authority. Under that bill, the Congress agrees to vote for or against, but not to amend, any trade deal the executive branch negotiates with other countries. It's a prerequisite for actually reaching any trade agreement. Every president since Gerald Ford has had this power, although it lapsed under Bill Clinton in 1994. If Bush can persuade about 30 Democrats in the House to back it, he can probably get a worthwhile bill on his desk. The worldwide economic slump makes it a good time to do so. It would also be a kind of tribute to the World Trade Center.

2. Boosting missile defense: The 9/11 terrorists showed that the United States isn't prepared to defend itself against certain kinds of attacks — but at least they weren't shooting ballistic missiles at us. Shortly before the strikes, Senate Democrats actually removed $1.3 billion from Bush's budget for missile defense. They've restored it since, in what they've described as a charitable act of bipartisanship. What they've really done is revealed a weakness in their position. Bush should exploit it by demanding his missile-defense budget be doubled or tripled and also formally pulling out of the ABM Treaty — because we can't afford not to have missile defense if terrorists ever gain the ability to put nuclear warheads on ICBMs.

3. Confirming judges: The Senate approved two more judges last week, raising the total number of confirmed judicial nominees for President Bush to eight. That leaves 52 who haven't had a vote. Bush should demand a speed-up.

4. Electing conservatives: Democrats are favored to win the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia in a few weeks, although polls show both races tightening and the Republican candidates within striking distance. It is possible to think that if Bush were to make individual appearances on behalf of both New Jersey's Bret Schundler and Virginia's Mark Earley — something he almost certainly would have done before September 11 — he might tip the result in their favor. Both men are conservatives, too. Liberals will scream. But if normalcy is to return to American life, it must include politics, too.

On the Site
A wartime reading list.