The Delegators
A silver lining in Virginia.

By John J. Miller & Ramesh Ponnuru
November 6, 2001 4:15 p.m.

ust about everyone expects Republican Mark Earley to lose the governor's election in Virginia today. The polls show Democrat Mark Warner leading, current governor and RNC chairman Jim Gilmore appeared to distance himself from his would-be successor over the weekend, and White House press secretary Ari Fleischer warned that off-year races shouldn't be understood as referenda on President Bush.

But today's results won't be entirely bad for Virginia Republicans. Democrats are not exactly sweeping the state. The GOP's attorney general candidate, Jerry Kilgore, looks like a sure winner. Republicans also appear ready to expand their majority in the House of Delegates — a majority they achieved for the first time in history just two years ago. There are 100 seats in the House, and Republicans currently occupy 52 of them — or 53, counting an independent who votes with the GOP. When all the results are in, Republicans say they expect to control between 58 and 60 seats.

That's an impressive pick-up in any year, let alone one in which the man on the top of the ticket creates headwind. Republican gains, assuming they materialize, will come from redistricting and a rash of Democratic retirements. Whatever their causes, though, they will serve as a powerful check on any Warner administration that takes roost in Richmond.

So today's elections won't be a defeat for Virginia Republicans. They may, however, be a defeat for Mark Earley, who ran a lackluster campaign that never found the single-issue focus that propelled George Allen (parole) and Jim Gilmore (car tax) to victory in 1993 and 1997. There will plenty of recriminations — Gilmore didn't do enough to help Earley, primary opponent John Hager did too much damage, and so on — but ultimate responsibility for the loss must lie with the candidate.

Even in losing the gubernatorial race, Virginia Republicans don't need to hold their heads low. "Virginia will be just as Republican tomorrow as it is today," promises Ed Matricardi, executive director of the Virginia GOP.