11/21/00 4:20 p.m.
A Weak Republican Argument
People who don’t choose to vote aren’t “disenfranchised.”

By NR’s John J. Miller & Ramesh Ponnuru

ince election night, Republicans have complained that the networks' early call that Florida would go to Al Gore caused many of their supporters to stay home — not least in Florida itself. Polls were still open in the Republican-dominated western panhandle, which is in the Central Time Zone, when the networks made the erroneous call. Now John McLaughlin & Associates have come out with a poll finding that in this section of Florida, 15 percent of the registered voters who didn't vote say that they were influenced by the reporting. The poll also shows that the registered non-voters would have broken 64-23 for George W. Bush over Al Gore, roughly in line with their voting neighbors.

There were around 187,000 registered non-voters in the area. Assuming that the 15 percent who were discouraged from voting by the networks would have voted in roughly the same proportion as the registered voters who just weren't going to vote, period, Bush's margin would have increased by 11,500. (Actually, 11,500.5 — 11,500 votes and a dimpled chad for Bush?)

These voters, according to JMA and to other Republicans who have taken legal action on their behalf, were disenfranchised." No, they weren't. Nobody stopped them from voting. When considering the ballots cast by confused voters, conservatives have made the point before that elections are not won by the candidate whom a plurality of voters preferred, but by the candidate for whom a plurality of voters actually cast ballots.

If anyone's to blame for those 11,500 missing Bush voters, it's those voters themselves. There is no end to the factors that might have "unfairly" influenced their vote or non-vote. (E.g., the excessive coverage of a 24-year-old drunk-driving arrest.) Voting is, strictly speaking, an irrational business; the odds of an individual's vote actually deciding the outcome of an election are exceedingly small, even in a tight race like the one in question. When people vote, it's generally because they feel a civic duty to do so — rather than to come up with after-the-fact excuses for their failure to do so.

Hand Jive
Suspicions are rising that maybe — just maybe — Al Gore will lose the hand recount. The Orlando Sentinel has a story headlined "Gore's odds look slim, analysts say." Gore has gained 117 votes with 90 percent of Broward County's precincts counted, 59 votes in Miami-Dade with 12 percent in, and 3 votes with 20 percent of Palm Beach done, according to the Sentinel. If these rates hold up, by our math, he'll net some 637 votes — still short of the 931 he currently needs to pass George W. Bush. What news! Even the Florida Supreme Court couldn't save Gore. He would almost certainly have to concede.

But don't count on it. Here's something the Sentinel doesn't point out: More than 5,000 ballots in the three counties have been set aside because workers couldn't agree on whether or not they should count. The final authority on how these votes are counted will turn out be the Democrat-controlled county canvassing boards, unless some judge reigns them in. Under these circumstances, it's possible that Gore would pass Bush's total, even if the governor gets an additional boost from military ballots that were initially thrown out.

Gore is benefiting from the stories running today about how he might lose the hand count. It makes the hand count look fairer, as though by insisting on it Gore is merely taking his chances. The truth is that Democrats don't want to take a p.r. hit from counting dimpled ballots if they can win without them. But if that's what it takes to win, they'll do it.

The Stupid Party No More!
Ever wonder why all those members of the Dimpled-Chad Party supposedly weren't able to punch their ballots through? Are they weak? Are they not the sharpest tacks in the drawer? One expert, Dario Moreno of Florida International University in Miami, has the answer: "Republicans are just better trained voters, it's just one of these quirks," he told the Associated Press.

On the Site
John J. Miller on felons for Gore.