12/15/00 10:45 a.m.
Expectations Game
Bush may surprise his critics.

By NR’s John J. Miller & Ramesh Ponnuru

t hasn't taken the pundits long to declare George W. Bush's presidency troubled, with the nasty post-election fight in Florida, angry Democrats in Congress, concerns about a recession, and (as Norm Ornstein said) a forthcoming honeymoon period that won't last as long as Darva Conger's. There's already some talk that the first thing Bush must do as president is not pass a tax cut or sign a partial-birth-abortion ban, but devote the massive resources of his office to the hanging-chad problem. He hasn't even been inaugurated, and the chattering class seems to think the GOP will have an awful mid-term election in 2002 and that Bush is destined to serve only a single term.

Perhaps they're right. But there's a reasonably good chance they're wrong, too. The current moment feels a lot like the buildup to the presidential debates, when the conventional wisdom had Vice President Gore trouncing Bush over and over. In reality, Bush beat Gore all three times. Expectations for him were so low, people seemed surprised when he could keep up with Gore for 45 minutes on foreign policy. And so he swept the debates because he simply put in a competent performance.

Likewise, if Bush accomplishes a few tangible things this spring, a lot of his critics will reassess him. Something simple such as the repeal of the estate tax may look like a major achievement. Or imagine if he actually gets somewhere with Social Security reform. Suddenly, this hobbled president-elect will be riding high.

On the Site
Kate O'Beirne and Ramesh Ponnuru suggest a cabinet for Bush.