The Arab protest movement is spreading to Syria. The security forces are reported to have shot and killed 22 people in Deraa, the largest town on the Hauran in eastern Syria. They have also shelled the mosque. Reformist sources say that demonstrations have broken out in about 20 towns and villages. I have seen a video of a huge and angry crowd shouting “God, Syria, Freedom.”

This is potentially far more important than events in Libya or Yemen. A successful uprising in Syria would at last check Iran, whose imperialist expansion is threatening the whole the Middle East. Iran is reaching for power in Bahrain, Yemen, and Iraq. Simultaneously, Syria offers Iran access to Lebanon, Hezbollah and a foothold on the Mediterranean with an agreement for a naval base at Tartus. In the complexity of internal Arab politics, Syria has made headway by being intolerable, sponsoring terror, and blocking all peace initiatives, in the process becoming more a dependency of Iran than an ally. A national uprising in Syria could be the surest way to avoid the large-scale regional war that otherwise looms.

One of the impenetrable mysteries of the Obama foreign policy is the appeasement of Syria. Obama seems to believe that he can split Syria away from Iran imply by being nice and kind. But Syria and Iran are both spoilers as well as united by religious sectarianism. In Syria, the Alawis are a minority of not more than fifteen percent, the huge majority being Sunni. Half a century ago, the Alawis seized power when Hafiz Assad mounted a coup. He and his son Bashar have formed an Alawi dynasty ever since. They have kept control through a tried and tested blend of murder and ruthlessness, bribery and corruption. In 1982 Hafiz Assad ordered his artillery to flatten Hama where the Muslim Brothers were staging an uprising. At least 30,000 were killed. Great courage is needed to protest today. Alawis and Sunnis are well aware that any break in the policing is likely to end in mutual massacres.

The Syrian regime makes sure to keep all journalists under control, and there seem to only one or two Western reporters in the country. The Bashar regime attributes the demonstrations to armed gangs, which is a transparent lie. It is hard to follow events there, but the fall of the vile Assad regime really would be a step forward for everyone.