How
strange that those who want America to adopt
a policy of preemption forget which country
is the overwhelming superpower and which is
the impoverished third-world wreck. They should
relax: The U.S. is well able to defend itself
without going to war.
Mr.
Babbin suggests that Washington view Iraq as
Britain and France should have viewed Germany
in 1936. Obviously a little historical knowledge
is a dangerous thing.
Britain
and France were bereft of friends in a divided
continent, facing Europe's most populous and
industrialized state, which had defeated France
in 1871 and nearly beaten a global coalition
in World War I. In contrast, America, the planet's
strongest military power, can obliterate any
adversary and is allied with every major industrialized
state. It need not fear Baghdad, an impoverished
hellhole with an obsolescent conventional force
and a desire for weapons of mass destruction
that, even if fulfilled, would never match Washington's
arsenal.
Saddam
is evil, but nothing suggests that he is suicidal.
Saddam never wanted to be an enemy of America:
Indeed, two decades ago he was our ally when
he fought Iran. He surely would like America
to stay out of any conflict why else
discuss Washington's view of his dispute with
Kuwait? But he wasn't interested then and has
no interest now in attacking the U.S.
True,
Baghdad might like to dominate the region, but
it first has to survive in a tough neighborhood.
Look at a map.
There's
Israel, a regional superpower armed with an
estimated 200 nuclear weapons. No wonder that
Baghdad has never attacked Israel other than
during the Gulf War, when Iraq sought to split
the allied coalition. And even then Saddam did
not use chemical or biological weapons.
There's
Iran, a more populous neighbor that bullied
Iraq under both the shah and the mullahs. There's
Turkey, with a military that has destroyed its
Kurdish rebellion, dominated Greece, and brought
Syria to heel. Then toss in Syria, Jordan, Kuwait,
and Saudi Arabia. Dreaming of Babylon redux
can't make it so.
Support
for terrorists is not the same as support for
terrorists who attack America. Hamas and Hezbollah
murder, but they are focused on Israel, not
the U.S. Is that evil? Yes. Is it a threat to
America? No.
There
are many brutal terrorists in the world, from
the IRA in Northern Ireland to the Abu Sayyaf
in the Philippines to the Laskar Jihad in Indonesia.
Indeed, the bloodiest force which has most commonly
relied on suicide bombings is the Tamil Tigers
in Sri Lanka. They are all evil. However, they
are not all enemies of America.
As
for al Qaeda, desperate attempts to link its
attacks on America have come to naught. Even
Britain's Tony Blair has acknowledged that the
tie can't be proved.
And
as much as Saddam might like to hit the U.S.,
whether through al Qaeda or some other way,
he knows that he would face catastrophic retaliation
for doing so. He could never assume that cooperation
with al Qaeda would not be discovered; he knows
that he would be suspected in any attack; he
is more interested in living than in killing
Americans. But all that would change if Washington
attacks.
As
much as Saddam would like to develop nuclear
weapons, he is not believed to possess fissionable
material. So, Mr. Babbin worries, Iraq might
buy weapons from North Korea and Pakistan. Pakistan,
it should be noted, already has helped Pyongyang
develop its bomb.
This
raises the question why Washington is focused
on Iraq when it believes that its own ally
an unstable dictatorship linked to Islamic radicals
is busy arming anti-American regimes?
The most serious threats to America are outside,
not inside, Baghdad. The Bush Administration
has become fixated on a state that has been
contained and deterred while ignoring others
that pose much greater risks.
The
bottom line for Mr. Babbin is that if we don't
bomb Iraq now, we might not be able to bomb
it later. That's an extraordinary basis for
a purported republic with limited ambitions
to go to war. Never before in America's history
has it expected to be able to attack any other
nation at any time that it desired.
Certainly
not during the Cold War. Then Washington faced
nuclear-armed China and Russia. Preemption was
suggested against both states (and tried, with
conventional weapons, against the latter). But
the U.S., almost certainly wisely, chose deterrence
over war.
If
preemption has become Washington's new foreign
policy goal, it means almost endless war. There's
North Korea and Pakistan. Perhaps a future,
even more radical Hindu government, in India
with nuclear weapons. A stronger, more hostile
China threatening Taiwan. A left-wing nationalist
government in Brazil considering pursuing nuclear
weapons. And so on.
The
U.S. must decide what kind of nation it desires
to be. A globe-spanning empire prepared to meddle
and make war to advance ever more distant goals.
Or a republic determined to avoid unnecessary
conflicts while remaining ready to destroy any
threat to its survival and vital interests.
Doug Bandow
is a senior fellow at the Cato
Institute. He is a former special assistant
to President Ronald Reagan and visiting fellow
at the Heritage
Foundation.