For my old friend Hugh Hewitt, a thought experiment:

It's the middle of the night. I steal into your house — not by jimmying a lock, but with the connivance of Mrs. Hewitt, who, amused by my plan, leaves the side door ajar — and slip silently to your bedside. Then, suddenly, I switch on a flashlight and shake you awake, shouting a summary of the candidates' positions:

"Schwarzenegger's pro-choice! When he announced his candidacy everybody thought he'd come out for school vouchers, but now he's nixed vouchers instead. Yeah, sure, Hugh, Schwarzenegger says he's against new taxes, but who really knows? The first thing he did was make Warren 'Taxes-Need-to-be-Raised-Not-Cut' Buffet his economic adviser, and since then he's spent the whole campaign refusing to take the no-new-taxes pledge.

"McClintock? Hugh, he's right on all the social issues, he's in favor of vouchers, and he's against tax hikes in a way that nobody doubts. That sucker'll go to Sacramento and force the legislature to cut spending. And when he's done with that, McClintock will propose a constitutional amendment to cap the state budget so we never, ever get into a mess like this again.

"Quick, Hugh. Before you wake up and remember all those nasty things you've been saying about McClintock. Which candidate do you support?"

You look at me perplexed for a moment, then shrug, yawn, roll over, and go back to sleep. But in the last moment before surrendering to unconsciousness, you mouth a single phrase. It is not a phrase in support of Schwarzenegger.

How do I know that in your heart you support Tom McClintock? Because you've as much as said so yourself. The single argument you've advanced against McClintock is that he can't win. You've done so, for the most part, with style and wit, but lately you've begun to sound strident, like a man attempting to convince himself he's right when a little voice keeps telling him he's wrong.

Listen to that voice, Hugh.

Otherwise, you'll be making a fundamental mistake. The future is not closed or predetermined, but unknowable, contingent, and open-ended, and that open-endedness is especially characteristic of politics. When I joined you on your radio show a couple of weeks ago, you informed me that McClintock could never win the support of more than 10 percent of Californians. According to the latest L.A.Times poll, McClintock is now at 18 percent — and he's beating Schwarzenegger among independents by 28 to 14 percent. And whereas just a couple of weeks ago the e-mails I received from readers of NRO were running three-to-one in favor of Schwarzenegger, by last weekend they had begun running two-to-one in favor of McClintock, a ratio that by this weekend had become four-to-one in favor of McClintock. McClintock is gaining, Hugh — and fast.

Yes, Schwarzenegger still holds an overwhelming advantage in name recognition and money, and if he retains his lead in the polls two weeks from now, then I too will adopt the Hewitt position, calling on McClintock to get out of the race. But in the meantime? Even if he fails to overtake Schwarzenegger in the polls, McClintock will impose discipline on Arnold's campaign. But it is McClintock, not Schwarzenegger, who is running just the kind campaign you've been advocating, concentrating on the need to fix the budget without raising taxes. McClintock is the man with a message. He's the candidate who's moving people. And he might just pull it off.

Go ahead, Hugh. You'll feel better. Speak in the broad light of day the words I know you'd speak in the dark of the night: "McClintock for governor."

— Peter Robinson, research fellow at the Hoover Institution and host of Uncommon Knowledge on PBS, is author, most recently, of How Ronald Reagan Changed My Life. Robinson is a frequent contributor to NRO's weblog, "The Corner."

As any listener to my radio show knows, I'm with Schwarzenegger.

Tom McClintock has zero chance of doing anything other than handing the California recall election to Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante. There is no credible poll that puts him within double digits of Arnold or Cruz, and he lacks the cash to close even a five point gap were one to appear out of nowhere.

Tom McClintock is in danger of becoming the spoiler, and it is up to his friends to tell him this. Call him, or write him, or plan an intervention, but let him know the stakes are too high for this sort of self-serving game.

Darrell Issa got it. Bill Simon got it. Now Peter Ueberoth has gotten it. Only Tom McClintock plays out his hand, but the absentees are arriving and votes are being cast. Florida turned on far fewer ballots that will be cast every hour from now until Election Day. The time for testing the waters is over. The only question is whether Tom really wants to be a spoiler.

My friend Peter Robinson officed next to me in the long ago days of the Reagan presidency. His wonderful new book, How Ronald Reagan Changed My Life, deserves close attention to how conservatives can advance agendas by following the example of the Gipper.

The most relevant of Ronald Reagan's examples of the California recall is that of 1976. Having been bested in a fair fight, Reagan worked for the party. Tom McClintock should take note. Right now he is following Buchanan's path, not Reagan's. My guess is that Peter knows this and this debate will become a round.

— Hugh Hewitt is a nationally syndicated radio talk-show host and author, most recently, of In, But Not Of: A Guide to Christian Ambition.