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In Dissent
A response to the Florida election report.

By Commissioners Abigail Thernstrom & Russell G. Redenbaugh

 
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Part III: No Attempt to Distinguish between Disfranchisement and Problems Caused by Bureaucratic Inefficiencies and Voter Error
Other witnesses did offer testimony suggesting numerous problems on election day. But the Commission, in discussing these problems, failed to distinguish between mere inconvenience, difficulties caused by bureaucratic inefficiencies, and incidents of potential discrimination. In its report, the complaint from the voter whose shoes were muddied on the path to his polling place is accorded the same degree of seriousness as the case of the seeing-impaired voter who required help in reading the ballot, or the African American voter who claimed she was turned away from the polls at closing time while a white man was not.

There were certainly jammed phone lines, some moved polling places, and other problems, but none added up to widespread discrimination. Many of the difficulties, like those associated with the "butterfly ballot," were the product of good intentions gone awry or the presence of many first-time voters. The most compelling testimony came from disabled voters who faced a range of problems, including insufficient parking and inadequate provision for wheelchair access.

Other than the "quantitative evidence" of its statistical analysis, the report claims that, "the only evidence that exists is the testimony of those who have stated publicly that they were denied the right to vote and the credibility of their testimony." However, while the first-hand accounts of witnesses were helpful in describing election-day problems, they did not point to what the majority report calls a "disturbing trend of disenfranchisement."

The majority of those witnesses who experienced problems and who came before the Commission testified that they were ultimately able to cast their vote, despite the problems they described; a few were not. A chief flaw in the majority report, however, is that it generally fails to distinguish between problems of mere inconvenience, difficulties caused by bureaucratic inefficiencies, and incidents of potential discrimination. In this way, the complaint from the white male voter whose shoes were muddied on the path to his polling place is accorded the same degree of seriousness as the case of the seeing-impaired voter who required — but was denied — assistance in reading the ballot, or the African American voter who claimed she was turned away from the polls at closing time while a white man was not.

For the most part, those who testified before the Commission told of problems in voting, not of being prevented from voting. The most frequent problems mentioned included the following:

1. Inability of some poll workers to confirm eligibility status

The report argues that in the last election, "many people arrived at their polling places expecting to cast their ballots for the candidates of their choice, but many left frustrated after being denied this right." To support this charge, the report points to "consistent, uncontroverted testimony regarding the persistent and pervasive inability of election poll workers to verify voter eligibility during the November 7 presidential election."

It is true that the Commission heard several complaints about jammed phone lines that, in many cases, prevented poll workers from getting through to headquarters to confirm the eligibility of voters whose names did not appear on the rolls. Some voters found that their names had been left off the voting lists because of bureaucratic error and through no fault of their own. In other cases, however, many voters failed to verify the location of their assigned precinct or polling place before going to vote on election day. Others failed to notify their elections board of a change in address. Some neglected to bring the necessary proof of eligibility to vote, and still others did not correctly fill out their mail-in applications through "motor voter" registration. The high turnout of voters, many of them first-time voters, only exacerbated the difficulties that arose on election day.

Neither voters nor poll workers testified that the problems they experienced amounted to widespread disfranchisement in Florida. In fact, according to researchers at the Miami Herald, some poll workers who struggled with insufficient phone lines admitted that they erred on the side of including, rather than excluding voters. In other words, when they were unable to get through to headquarters, they found it easier to go ahead and let people vote, rather than challenge their credentials.

What we learned in Florida was that all of these factors can contribute to an overloaded communications system on election day, and that there is no substitute for greater voter awareness and better trained elections staff to handle inquiries.

2. Polling places closed early or moved without notice

The Commission received no evidence that this was more than an insignificant problem. There is absolutely no evidence upon which to conclude, or even suggest, that there was a pattern of closings or movement designed to disenfranchise voters. One county supervisor testified that in some cases there are urgent reasons for moving a polling facility — i.e., there was one facility that had burned down on the Saturday before election day — but that the public is notified of the change. The Palm Beach County supervisor testified that, "Nobody has come to me to give me specifics on which precinct they were turned away from so that I could do the investigation to see what exactly happened."

The Commission did hear testimony from one poll worker about a gated community where the gates had shut automatically at 6:15 p.m. and had to be reopened by police officers. The Palm Beach supervisor asserted that this incident was "never reported" to her but that it did not seem likely given that the facility in question was located at a water works facility that would have had a government staff person there to open the gates. As the supervisor explained, "I've heard many people tell me things and then I asked them whether they themselves experienced it and they said, no, they heard it from somebody else. And I wonder if this person [the witness about the gated community] actually experienced that themselves."

In a letter to the General Counsel during the affected agency review, David Leahy, the Supervisor of Elections for Miami-Dade refutes the testimony of several witnesses, including one (Felix Boyle) who insisted that his voting place had been changed without prior notice. After investigating this matter, Mr. Leahy affirms in his letter that: "Felix Boyle stated that the polling place for Precinct #36 was in a different building than was used in the 2000 primary election. The same building was used for both elections." Ignoring this rebuttal altogether, the report continues to include Mr. Boyle's testimony as an example of "polling places moved without notice."

If the Commission had been truly interested in the important issue of uniform polling-place hours, it might have made more than a single, passing mention of one of the more widely-publicized problems that emerged during the last election: the announcement by all five television networks at 7:00 p.m. Eastern time that the polls in Florida had closed, when the polls in the Panhandle counties were still open for another hour. There is no way of knowing exactly how many voters were discouraged from going to the polls because of this misinformation, but testimony before Congress from a number of poll workers and inspectors indicates that the network poll-closing announcement did have a sizeable impact on voter turnout in the panhandle. The majority's willingness to overlook such issues is consistent with its objective of reaching a predetermined conclusion. Any evidence that might tend to support a different conclusion or support the legitimacy of the election outcome is to be excluded or given only the most perfunctory treatment.

3. Accessibility issues

Some of the most compelling and direct testimony in Florida were those accounts regarding the problems of accessibility for disabled voters. Although the disabled voters who testified before the Commission claimed that they themselves ultimately voted, they described a range of problems facing the disabled on election day, including insufficient parking, inadequate provision for wheelchair access, and other difficulties involving ballots and voting technology. The barriers they described appear to constitute a long-standing problem that was not just confined to Florida or to this presidential election. It is unfortunate that the report does not examine the ongoing efforts of Florida state officials Governor Bush's ADA working group and a task force working under the Secretary of State to address these concerns.

In the same chapter on "accessibility issues," the report addresses allegations that an "overwhelming number" of Haitian-American voters, "many Latino voters," and "many persons who were not literate" were "denied adequate assistance" in casting their ballots. Here, the discussion of accessibility problems is much less clear. Much of the testimony from advocacy groups was speculative and based on second-hand, anecdotal information.

For instance, the Commission heard from a representative of a Haitian-American advocacy organization in Miami-Dade that, in addition to the problems of long lines and understaffed polling facilities, there were problems regarding a lack of bilingual ballots. However, few details were presented to help gauge the extent of this problem, and no attempt was made to properly investigate the seriousness of these alleged problems.

When the Miami-Dade County supervisor was questioned about the allegations of the earlier witness, he referred to a county commission ordinance that requires the supervisor to determine which precincts have a significant Haitian American voter population and to provide bilingual ballots in those precincts. He testified that, for purposes of the November 2000 election, he determined there were 60 precincts with a significant Creole population. In addition to providing bilingual ballots, Miami-Dade also did sample ballots in English and Creole and publicized those in Haitian-American newspapers. The Miami Dade supervisor maintained that the earlier witness might be in a precinct that did not have a significant Haitian American population. The report makes no attempt to clear up this confusion.

4. "Motor Voter" Problems

The report asserts that "[m]any Floridians alleged that they registered to vote through the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) and learned later that they were not registered. Many of these disappointed citizens filed complaints with the attorney general's office and/or the Democratic Party." The allegation here appears to be that Republicans in Florida somehow engineered a "motor voter" conspiracy, even though there is no evidence to support that claim. The report itself points out that, according to the testimony of the director of the Division of Driver Licenses, problems often arose because voters failed to complete their motor/voter applications correctly and/or in a timely manner. References to one such individual were stricken from the report when the affected agency's responses determined that this individual had submitted an incomplete registration form. The report does not explore the concerns of "motor voter" critics that, instead of excluding voters, the "motor voter" system frequently tends to err on the side of letting voters vote when in fact they may not be eligible.

5. Confusing Ballots

Although some witnesses testified about the confusion caused by the "butterfly ballot" in Palm Beach County, no evidence was presented that the butterfly ballot was targeted to particular groups, as the Commission originally suggested in its "preliminary" report of March 9. During the hearings, the Commission heard varying accounts regarding "defective" ballots. A rabbi from Palm Beach County testified that when he spoke with a group of 500 people within his congregation in Palm Beach County, about 20 percent complained that they had problems with the butterfly ballot ("their arrows did not line up with the holes"); the rest of the group experienced no such problems and "simply laughed."

The supervisor of elections for Palm Beach County supervisor later testified that, in some cases, it appeared that voters using the butterfly ballot failed to properly line up the ballot in the voting machine. The supervisor also explained that certain community groups may have mistakenly instructed voters to "punch the second hole" for Gore "when he was not the second hole; he was the third hole." Others had been told to "vote for Lieberman," but "[i]f they followed the line where Lieberman's name was, it punched another hole down because the President and Vice President are grouped together."

The supervisor also testified that, "In Palm Beach, sample ballots were sent out to all registered voters," and she contested earlier charges regarding defective ballots. She explained that she herself had never been alerted to or received any complaints about the actual card not fitting into the machine: "The ballot cards are all purchased from the same company and they're all printed at the same time. They all come off the same press. They're all printed on the exact same size paper. You've got the candidate's name, the arrow pointing to the number and then the hole if you follow straight across then you'll hit the hole."

Appearing before the Senate Rules Committee on March 14, Dr. Stephen Knack, testified that many of the problems affecting the largest numbers of voters in Florida were the product of good intentions gone awry and were not inherently related to questions of technology. In Palm Beach County, the major problem was a ballot designed to be printed in large type for the benefit of older voters. In Duval County, a major problem was faulty instructions to voters by party workers, which were provided with the intention of reducing roll-off in contests farther down on the ballot. The biggest problem for all kinds of ballots was the fact that, as the report explains, there were ten candidates on the ballot for President, compared with only three or four in previous years.

Another significant issue, which the report virtually ignores, concerns the problems that occurred as a result of the high turnout of first-time voters, many of whom received faulty how-to instructions from the very groups that urged them to vote in the first place. As Isiah Rumlin, head of the NAACP in Duval County, recently stated: "We didn't do any voter education. We didn't know we needed to. In retrospect, we should have done a better job."

As a result of the election-day confusion in Florida and many other states, there is a new emphasis on voter education initiatives and the role that can be played by advocacy groups and community organizations. In Broward County, for example, the supervisor of elections, Miriam Oliphant, has launched a program to involve local churches in the efforts to better educate voters, recruit new ones, and prevent many of the difficulties that occurred during the 2000 election. By stressing litigation rather than education, the majority report is heading in the wrong direction.

Part IV: The Majority Report's Warped Interpretation of the Voting Rights Act
The report comes close to concluding that election procedures in Florida were in violation of the Voting Rights Act, but the Commission cannot reach such a conclusion and has bent the 1965 statute totally out of shape.

The question of a Section 2 violation can only be settled in a federal court. Plaintiffs who charge discrimination must prevail in a trial in which the state has a full opportunity to challenge the evidence. To prevail, plaintiffs must show that "racial politics dominate the electoral process," as the 1982 Senate Judiciary Committee Report stated in explaining the newly amended Section 2. 

The majority's report implies that Section 2 aimed to correct all possible inequalities in the electoral process.  Had that been the goal, racially disparate registration and turnout rates — found nearly everywhere in the country — would constitute a Voting Rights Act violation. Less affluent, less educated citizens tend to register and vote at lower rates, and, for the same reasons, are likely to make more errors in casting ballots, especially if they are first time voters. Neither the failure to register nor the failure to cast a ballot properly — as regrettable as they are — are Section 2 violations.

Thus, despite the thousands of voting rights cases on the books, the majority report cannot cite any case law that suggests punch card ballots, for instance, are potentially discriminatory. Or that higher error rates among black voters suggest disfranchisement. 

There is good reason why claims brought under section 2 must be settled in a federal court. The provision requires the adjudication of competing claims about equal electoral opportunity — an inquiry into the complex issue of racial fairness. The Commission is not a court and cannot arrive at verdicts that belong exclusively to the judiciary. Yet, while the majority report does admit that the Commission cannot determine if violations of the Voting Rights Act have actually occurred, in fact it unequivocally claims to have found "disenfranchisement," under the terms of the statute.

The majority report argues that election procedures in Florida violated the Voting Rights Act, but that conclusion depends upon bending the 1965 statute totally out of shape.

In 1982, as the report correctly states, Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act was amended to allow minority voters to challenge any method of election on the ground of discriminatory "result." In this amended provision, a method of election is said to have a discriminatory impact when minority voters have been found to have "less opportunity than other members of the electorate to participate in the political process and to elect representatives of their choice."

The majority on the Commission does not (and cannot) find Florida in violation of the Voting Rights Act; by law, only a court could draw such a conclusion. But it strongly implies that it has proven just that, claiming that the Act was violated by the use of older, less reliable voting machinery in the poorer districts; by the disproportionately high number of spoiled ballots in counties with substantial minority populations; and by the use of the state's "purge list" of felons who are ineligible to vote.

The "Less Reliable Voting Machinery" Issue
The less-reliable machinery argument — which gained mythic proportions in the press — has been widely disproven. It is simply not the case that poorer counties with larger minority populations have substantially inferior voting equipment that is significantly more prone to error. At worst this is a minor factor in voter error rates.

In fact, as the Commission heard in Florida, the punch-card jurisdictions did not have the highest "spoilage" rates. The "optical central" system had the most problems — that is, the system using optical scanners with votes counted at some central location rather than in the local precinct. (Thus, the county with the highest spoilage rate, Gadsden County, used the optical central tabulation system, not the infamous punch-card machines.) And the "touchscreen" system has been found to have a spoilage rate as high as punch-card systems.

The Commission heard a number of complaints about punch card voting machines, but these were used in many different locations throughout the state, in both poor and affluent districts, from Duvall County to Palm Beach. Testimony from expert witnesses on voting technology did seem to point to a correlation between minority populations and "drop off" rates ("drop off" being the difference between the numbers of people who went to the polls and the numbers of ballots that recorded no vote for certain offices), but not a clear or consistent correlation between technology and minority populations.

A January 2001 study by Professor Stephen Knack of the University of Maryland and Professor Martha Kropf of the University of Missouri (Kansas City), like other recent, authoritative studies, also challenges the "widespread perception that counties in Florida and elsewhere with a greater percentage of minorities and poor people were more likely to employ antiquated voting machinery that produces a disproportionate number of undervotes and invalid ballots." The Knack & Kropf study found "little support for the view that resource constraints cause poorer counties with large minority populations to retain antiquated or inferior voting equipment. In most states, it is whites, the non-poor and Republican voters who are more likely to reside in punch card counties rather than African Americans, the poor and Democratic voters."

There is, however, a larger problem with this whole analysis.  Even if the spoilage rate data were accurate, the Commission's allegations of Voting Rights Act violations would be close to indefensible.

Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965
The question of a Section 2 violation can only be settled in a federal court. Plaintiffs who charge discrimination must prevail in a trial in which the state has a full opportunity to challenge the evidence. To prevail, plaintiffs must show that "racial politics dominate the electoral process," as the 1982 Senate Judiciary Committee Report stated in explaining the newly amended Section 2. The point of the Voting Rights Act was always to provide remedies for voters who were "isolated within a political system… 'shut out,' i.e. denied access… [without] the opportunity to participate in the electoral process," as a distinguished civil rights attorney who helped draft the amendment stated at the 1982 hearings.

Under Section 2, plaintiffs need not find a smoking gun--clear evidence of discriminatory intent. Nevertheless, the Judiciary Committee's list of "factors" to which courts were to refer in judging the merits of a Section 2 suit were clearly intended to help judges identify those situations in which either a history of discrimination or ongoing racism had left black and Hispanic voters at a distinctive disadvantage in the electoral process. Racism is still the issue in a "results" test. And yet the Commission's majority report failed to produce a shred of evidence suggesting an electoral process infected with racial animus.

The majority's report implies that Section 2 aimed to correct all possible inequalities in the electoral process. Had that been the goal, racially disparate registration and turnout rates--found nearly everywhere in the country--would constitute a Voting Rights Act violation. Less affluent, less educated citizens tend to register and vote at lower rates and, for the same reasons, are likely to make more errors in casting ballots, especially if they are first time voters. Neither the failure to register nor the failure to cast a ballot properly--as regrettable as they are--constitute Section 2 violations.

Voters have the right to equal access to the voting booth, and to have their ballots treated equally once they are cast, but the responsibility for deciding to register, to go to the polls, and to cast a valid ballot remains with the voter in America. Some countries compel their citizens to vote, which would be the only way of creating uniformly representative turnout rates; America, thankfully, does not.

Thus, despite the thousands of voting rights cases on the books, the majority report cannot cite any case law that suggests punch card ballots, for instance, are potentially discriminatory. Or that higher error rates among black voters suggest disfranchisement. 

In fact, many of Florida's African American voters in the 2000 election were first-time voters, so it is not implausible to assume that many of them may have been unfamiliar with voting procedures, and consequently were more likely to commit errors in voting that would have "spoiled" their ballots. Such errors would not be the result of discrimination; they would simply be errors. The true test of discrimination is whether voters of equal ability--equally literate, and equally experienced with voting procedures and equipment--but of different races were equally able to exercise their right to vote.

The Commission's report offers no evidence that middle class, educated black voters made ballot errors at a rate higher than their white neighbors. And if a disproportionately high number of voting errors among low-income and poorly educated blacks constitutes "disfranchisement"--a violation of voting rights--then most jurisdictions in the nation with a minority population would have long ago found themselves in court fighting charges of discrimination.

That is not what the framers of Section 2 envisioned. The concern, the Senate Judiciary Committee informed members of Congress in 1982, was solely with those settings in which "racial politics play[ed] an excessive role," dominating the electoral process.

There is a reason why, in contrast to Section 5 in the Act, Section 2 requires a trial in a federal court. Section 5 claims can be settled in the Justice Department itself, through the process of administrative review. That is because they pose simpler questions--namely, whether a new election procedure or practice is clearly intentionally discriminatory, or whether its impact is such as to leave minority voters worse off than they had been. A typical Section 5 question would thus be: Are newly drawn redistricting lines likely to result in fewer black officeholders than before? 

Section 2, on the other hand, demands an inquiry into the complex issue of racial fairness. Adjudicating competing claims about equal electoral opportunity, as the Supreme Court has noted, requires an "intensely local appraisal"--the specific, detailed knowledge that only a court can obtain.  And it demands the chance that only a trial can provide for the challenged jurisdiction to answer the charges. As the Chair herself has conceded many times the Commission is: "not a court" and cannot arrive at verdicts that belong exclusively to the judiciary. Yet, while the majority report does admit that the Commission cannot determine whether violations of the Voting Rights Act have actually occurred, in fact it unequivocally claims to have found "disenfranchisement," under the terms of the statute.

The Commission's findings are likely to inspire some people to call for federally-mandated election procedures of one sort or another. This would be a grievous error. The architects of the Constitution left matters of suffrage almost entirely in state hands, although subsequent Amendments prohibited a poll tax and denial or abridgment of the right to vote on account of race, gender, or age (after eighteen). It is true that in 1965 the Voting Rights Act broke with constitutional tradition, but that was a uniquely draconian response necessitated by the persistent and egregious infringements of basic Fifteenth Amendment rights that pervaded the Jim Crow South.

None of the Commission's findings depict a national emergency in any way resembling that in 1965. Florida itself (unlike the states of the Deep South in the 1960s) has readily acknowledged the need for reforms to its voting procedures, and has already acted to remedy problems evident in the November election. State action is appropriate; federal intrusion is not.

Part V: The Unfair and Politicized Attack against Florida's Public Officials
The report holds Florida's public officials, including the governor and secretary of state responsible for the discrimination that it alleges. "State officials failed to fulfill their duties in a manner that would prevent this disenfranchisement," is asserts. In fact, most of the authority over elections in Florida resides with officials in the state's 67 counties, and many of those with the highest rates of voter error were under Democratic control.

The report charges that the governor, the secretary of state and other state officials should have acted differently in anticipation of the high turnout of voters. What the Commission actually heard from "key officials" and experts was that the increase in registration, on average, was no different than in previous years; that since the development of "motor voter" registration, voter registration is more of an ongoing process and does not reach the intensity it used to just prior to an election; and that, in any event, registration is not always a reliable predictor for turnout.

There was a 65 percent increase in African American voters, 40 percent of whom were coming to the polls for the first time. But this was an unanticipated event.

The majority report also faults Florida state officials with having failed to provide the 67 supervisors of elections with "adequate guidance or funding" for voter education and training of election officials. But the county supervisors are independent, constitutional officers who make their budget requests to the Boards of county commissioners.

The majority report makes no attempt to conceal its politicized attack against Florida state officials. The report asserts that "State officials failed to fulfill their duties in a manner that would prevent this disenfranchisement," and calls on the U.S. Department of Justice to "institute formal investigations... to determine liability and to seek appropriate remedies."

The charges the majority has directed against the Governor and the Secretary of State and other officials in Florida are particularly disturbing. The Commission's interrogation in Tallahassee (during which the Governor was the only witness during the entire set of hearings to be denied the opportunity to make an opening statement) suggested a Catch-22: The governor and other state officials would have been faulted if they had been too involved in the running of the presidential election; now they are judged to be derelict for their deference to proper local authorities.

The majority report admits that it found no "conclusive evidence" of a state-sponsored conspiracy to keep minorities from voting. But as several independent observers have pointed out, this is malicious and misleading phrasing, since there was in fact no evidence whatsoever of a conspiracy at all, conclusive or otherwise.

Contrary to what the majority has asserted, state and local officials have clearly and forcefully refuted the serious allegations the Commission has made against them.

The testimony in Florida clearly explained and delineated the delegation of authority and decentralized responsibility for elections, under Florida's constitution. Testimony from all the public witnesses with jurisdiction over these matters provided no evidence of criminal misconduct in connection with the Florida 2000 elections. Testimony also revealed the seriousness accorded to the work of the Governor's bipartisan task force on election reform. Ignoring all of this available evidence the Commission insists that Florida state officials are guilty of "gross neglect" in fulfilling their responsibilities regarding election matters. By so doing, the majority again violates fundamental concepts of due process. Not only are its conclusions not based upon evidence contained in the record of the hearings, they are in direct conflict with the testimony of the witnesses who were most knowledgeable about such matters.

The report refuses to accept a key point that emerged in testimony during the hearings--that the elections supervisors are "independent, constitutional officers." That is why, as a recent piece in The Economist ("Unfair, Again," June 9, 2001) points out, "laying so much blame on the governor and secretary of state is unrealistic." The article goes on to explain that, "Most of the key decisions were made in Florida's 67 counties rather than in Tallahassee," and, "Many of the counties with the highest number of voter errors were under Democratic control."

The majority report criticizes Governor Bush for having "apparently delegated the responsibility" for the conduct of the election, even though that is precisely what Florida law provides. The Secretary of State is criticized for having taken a "limited" role in election oversight that is in sharp contrast to the position she took before the Supreme Court" in Bush v. Gore. The majority report fails to explain, however, that Bush v. Gore (which addressed the issue of "recounts" and the certification of the results of the election) had nothing to do with the authority of county officials as to how the elections are run on the local level in Florida. The report glosses over the inconvenient fact that, under Florida law, Governor Bush has virtually no authority over the voting process, and the Secretary of State's role is mainly to provide non-binding advice to local officials.

The report's central theme--that the governor and other officials are to be blamed (and investigated) for not having taken full responsibility for all of the problems that occurred during the Florida election--is contravened by the arbitrary way in which these same officials were treated by the Commission's own general counsel.

On June 8, when questioned as to why state officials were given only portions of the report to review, the general counsel explained that, "we selected the portions that are relevant... based on activities and responsibilities." The general counsel went on to say that, "we just thought it would be a bad idea [to send the full report] because there are responsibilities and activities that don't pertain to the governor's office.…" In light of the fact that the general counsel sent the governor only about 30 pages of a 200-page report, he himself must have considered the governor's activities and responsibilities to be quite limited indeed.

It is also ironic that the Chair chose to berate Secretary Harris during the Tallahassee hearing for not having assumed more responsibility for the problems that occurred on election day. At the hearing, the Chair explained that, even though this Commission delegates to the staff director the authority to run the day-to-day operations of the Commission, she herself--as Chair--must assume ultimate responsibility for everything that happens at the Commission. That explanation stands in stark contrast to the statements issued by the Chair in the wake of the unauthorized leak of this report, when the Chair asserted that she was "only one vote" on the Commission.

The report charges that the governor, the secretary of state and other state officials should have acted differently in anticipation of the high turnout of voters. What the Commission actually heard from "key officials" and experts was that the increase in registration, on average, was no different than in previous years; that since the development of "motor voter" registration, voter registration is more of an ongoing process and does not reach the intensity it used to just prior to an election; and that, in any event, registration is not always a reliable predictor for turnout.

One expert who has studied voter turnout and participation for 25 years testified that, "The Florida turnout was not particularly high"--only 2.2 percent over 1996. Several supervisors of elections testified that the highest turnout occurred in 1992 (which had an 80 percent turnout compared to the 64 percent turnout in 2000).

Other experts pointed to the 65 percent increase in African American voters and the fact that 40 percent of the African American voters who turned out were first-time voters, but characterized these as "unanticipated events." The Palm Beach County supervisor stated, "I don't think I was aware of how much larger the African American community's turnout was until really at the end of the election evening when we looked at the precincts as [the results] came in."

The majority report also faults Florida state officials with having failed to provide the 67 supervisors of elections with "adequate guidance or funding" for voter education and training of election officials. It fails to mention the Commission also learned that, under Florida's Constitution, requesting and allocating resources is a local responsibility, one which belongs to the supervisors of elections. The county supervisors are independent, constitutional officers who make their budget requests to the Boards of county commissioners. It is up to the county commissioners to approve or reject those requests, and there is currently no process for appealing to the Florida cabinet. The majority of the supervisors of elections who came before the Commission testified that they themselves did not request additional resources prior to the election but, that even if they had, such a request would have properly been directed to their county commissioners, not to the governor or to the Division of Elections.

Part VI: One-Sided Examination of the Felon List
The report asserts that the use of a convicted felons list "has a disparate impact on African Americans. African Americans in Florida were more likely to find their names on the list than persons of other races." Undoubtedly that is true; a higher proportion of blacks have been convicted of felonies. But there is no evidence that the state targeted blacks in a discriminatory manner in constructing a purge list, or that the state made less of an effort to notify listed African Americans and to correct errors than it did with whites. The Commission did not hear from a single witness who was actually prevented from voting as a result of being erroneously identified as a felon. Furthermore, whites are twice as likely as blacks to be placed on the felon list erroneously not the other way around.

The compilation of the purge list was part of an anti-fraud measure enacted by the Florida legislature in the wake of a Miami mayoral election in which ineligible voters cast ballots. The list was overinclusive, and some supervisors made no use of it. (The majority report did not bother to ask how many counties relied upon it.) On the other hand, according to the Palm Beach Post, more than 6,500 who were in fact ineligible would not have been found without the list.

Based on extensive research, the Miami Herald concluded that the biggest problem with the felon list was not that it wrongly prevented eligible voters from casting ballots, but that it ended up allowing ineligible voters to cast a ballot. The Commission should have looked into allegations of voter fraud, not only with respect to ineligible felons, but involving the country in a variety of jurisdictions, serious questions about voter fraud have been raised.

Despite the majority report's extensive examination of the so-called "purge" list of alleged felons, there is no evidence of any discrimination resulting from distribution of the list, nor is there any evidence of any systematic attempt to disenfranchise black voters or any group through the use of this list. While insisting that "countless voters" were "deprived of their right to vote" as a result of the list, the report contradicts its own findings: Although the Commission record reflects that certain supervisors of elections registered general complaints regarding the use of the exclusion lists, the record does not reflect that the Division of Elections office "was flooded with specific examples of Floridians erroneously identified as felons." Indeed, as Dr. Lott report shows, whites were twice as likely as balcks to have been placed on the list erroneously.

At the hearing in Miami, the Commission received testimony from DBT/Choicepoint, Inc., the data-base company which provided the state with a over-inclusive list of individuals who might be convicted felons, registered in more than one county or even deceased. The compilation of the list was part of an anti-fraud measure enacted by the Florida legislature in the wake of Miami's 1997 mayoral election, in which at least one dead voter and a number of felons cast ballots.

The Commission heard from DBT that approximately 3,000 to 4,000 non-felons (out of approximately 174,000 names) were mistakenly listed on this so-called "purge" list provided to the state. The list identified 74,900 potentially dead voters, 57,770 potential felons, and 40,472 potential duplicate registrations. Under Florida law, the supervisors of elections were required to verify the ineligible-voter list by contacting the supposedly ineligible voters. Some supervisors who were concerned about the unreliability of the list did not use it to remove a single voter, but the majority report made no effort to determine how many of the 67 supervisors of elections did or did use the list. According to recent studies, the total number of wrongly-purged felons was 1,104, including 996 convicted of crimes in other states and 108 who were not felons. This number contradicts the Commission's claim that "countless" voters were wrongly disenfranchised because of inaccuracies in the list.

Most notably, the Commission did not hear from a single witness who was prevented from voting as a result of being erroneously identified as a felon. One witness did testify that he was erroneously removed from the voter list because he had been mistaken for another individual on the felon list whose name and birth date were practically identical to his. However, he was able to convince precinct officials that there had been a clerical error, and he was allowed to vote.

In pursuing its attack on the purge list, the Commission completely ignored the bigger story: Approximately 5,600 felons voted illegally in Florida on November 7, approximately 68 percent of whom were registered Democrats. On June 8, General Counsel Hailes was asked why the report failed to address the issue of ineligible voters who cast ballots on election day. His response was: "That's not part of the scope of our report."

Based on extensive research, the Miami Herald discovered that, "[a]mong the felons who cast presidential ballots, there were "62 robbers, 56 drug dealers, 45 killers, 16 rapists, and 7 kidnappers. At least two who voted were pictured on the state's on-line registry of sexual offenders." According to the Herald, the biggest problem with the felon list was not that it wrongly prevented eligible voters from voting, but rather that it ended up allowing ineligible voters to cast a ballot:

Some…claim that many legitimate voters "of all ethnic and racial groups, but particularly blacks" were illegally swept from the rolls through the state's efforts to ban felons from voting. There is no evidence of that. Instead, the evidence points to just the opposite, that election officials were mostly permissive, not obstructionist, when unregistered voters presented themselves. (Miami Herald Report, p. 105)

The Palm Beach Post conducted its own extensive research into the problems with the flawed exceptions list. The Post's findings, which corroborate the major conclusions of the Herald's investigation, include the following:

  • Controversy aside, most of the people the state prevented from voting probably were felons.
  • Of the 19,398 voters removed from the rolls, more than 14,600 matched a felon by name, birth date, race and gender.
  • More than 6,500 were convicted in counties other than where they voted, suggesting they would not have been found by local officials without the DBT list.
  • Many of these felons were convicted years ago, and they had no idea that they did not have their civil rights [to vote].
  • Many had been voting and unwittingly breaking the law for years.

(Palm Beach Post, "Felon Purge Sacrificed Innocent Voters," May 27, 2001)

With respect to the majority report's claim that the DBT list had a "disparate impact" on minority voters, there is no way to determine how many of those listed, either accurately or in error, were minorities. As DBT testified, the list was not coded by race or ethnicity. Any assumption about the race of voters improperly Included on the "purge" list is purely speculative.

The majority report uses Miami-Dade as a "vivid example" of the problems with the list, but there is no clear evidence of how many voters in Miami-Dade were wrongly prevented from voting because of the list. The report concludes that "almost 1 out of 7 names" on this [Miami-Dade] were there in error, and risked being disenfranchised [emphasis added]." But this is pure speculation. The report later adds that, "[b]ased on the experience in Miami-Dade County, "it appears [emphasis added] as if African-Americans are more likely than whites and Hispanics to be incorrectly placed on the convicted felons list."

The problem with this analysis is that, in order to make the "disparate impact" claim, the report centers on the discrepancy between the population and the percentage of persons of color affected by the list. But the proper comparison is not with population percentages but rather with the percentage of convicted felons in the state. In Florida, blacks make up approximately 11 percent of the population, 44 percent of those on the list, and 49 percent of convicted felons in Florida. Yet after presenting its spurious analysis of "spoiled ballots" and the speculation regarding the felon list, the report sums up by saying "there is a strong basis for concluding that Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 has been violated."

The report's message is that nobody in authority did enough in terms of data verification. But the Commission itself has failed to verify key arguments it makes in this report. The letter (submitted per the affected agency review) from Michael R. Ramage, General Counsel for the Florida Department of Law Enforcement, provides a lengthy clarification of the FDLE's role in verifying the felon status of voters whose names had been forwarded by the local supervisor. (Note that, according to Mr. Ramage's letter to Mr. Hailes, the FDLE was allowed to review only three pages of the 200-page report, despite the prominence the report gives to this controversial issue.) In his letter to General Counsel Hailes, dated June 6, 2001, Mr. Ramage maintains that the Commission's findings are "wrong and based on erroneous assumptions," and places undue emphasis on "anecdotal examples of problems." His letter later goes on to detail FDLE's efforts regarding verification of the "exceptions" list:

[I]t is important to note that during the pertinent time frame, FDLE responded effectively to nearly 5,000 voters whose names matched those of convicted felon's in Florida's criminal history records. (It is not unusual for criminals when arrested to use a name, date of birth, address, social security number, etc., other than their own.).… A number of those who believed they had been wrongfully identified as not being able to vote were ultimately found to be incorrect. They were, in fact, not eligible to vote. Likewise, a number of those who raised a concern were ultimately found to be eligible to vote. The process worked to resolve issues. Of those voters who contacted FDLE to appeal the notice from a local supervisor of elections that they were ineligible to vote, approximately 50 percent were confirmed to be Florida convicted felons, and 50 percent were determined not to have a conviction in Florida for a felony.

While the General Counsel on June 8 indicated that some revisions would be made to acknowledge the "extraordinary efforts" by the FDLE, no revision has been made in the conclusions, which are still wrong and based on erroneous assumptions. Certainly, no eligible voter should be wrongly prevented from doing so, but at the same time, election officials have a compelling interest in preventing voter fraud by convicted felons. The Commission majority has failed to look at all the facts regarding the felon list and, instead of focusing on what it calls "the reality" of list maintenance, uses anecdotes to call for an extensive and unwarranted investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice.

There is also the additional question of voter fraud. On June 8, the Chair explained that the report did not look at the issue of voter fraud, since "fraud does not appear to be a major factor in the Florida election," and that, in any event, this was "beyond the scope" of the Commission's investigation. Thus, the report single-mindedly pursues only one kind of vote dilution (allegations that eligible voters were denied the tight to vote) while completely ignoring the other (allegations that ineligible voters were allowed to vote).

Only in the report's introduction is there a brief mention of Complaints of Voter Fraud, "listed along with the Western Florida Time Zone Controversy and Absentee Military Ballots as "other factors" that "could have contributed to voter disenfranchisement in Florida." (In other words, the main concern is with voting irregularities that could be interpreted as having a disparate impact on Democratic voters. Factors that one could surmise might have had a disparate impact on Republican voters are simply shoved aside.) The report then goes on to explain that, "[w]hile recognizing that the above factors do raise concerns of voting irregularities, the Commission did not receive many complaints or evidence during its Tallahassee and Miami hearings pertaining to how these issues created possible voter disenfranchisement in Florida."

This explanation is disingenuous and incorrect. First of all, at the Commission's meeting of December 8, 2000, when the Commission reached its decision to conduct an investigation of the Florida election, there was lengthy discussion of the Commission's statutory responsibility to investigate "any patterns or practice of fraud." Chair Berry herself explained that "if there are people who engaged in fraud or violated the laws, we would hand them over for prosecution." The Chair assured Commissioners that, "[e]very single allegation should be systematically pursued."

Second, if the Commission "did not receive" evidence regarding fraud, it is because, contrary to the Chair's assurances in December, it chose not to seek any testimony on the widely-publicized allegations of fraud. Given the report's emphasis on the so-called purge list, this is an egregious omission.

Following the November elections, specific allegations of voter fraud surfaced in a number of cities and states. For example:

  • A grand jury in St. Louis has been investigating 3,000 suspect voter registration cards, including some for dead local officials and even a pet.
  • In Philadelphia, the number of the city's registered voters almost equals the number of eligible voters who live in the city according to census estimates.
  • Allegations of vote fraud in Milwaukee prompted an investigation into reports that out-of-state volunteers from one political party supplied packages of cigarettes to homeless people in exchange for their votes.
  • The names of more than 15,000 dead people were found on Georgia's active voting rolls.
  • In Indiana, as many as one in five voter registrations were found to be bogus.

In Florida, there were various reports regarding thousands of ballots cast by ineligible felons and unregistered voters, fraudulent absentee ballots in nursing homes, and precincts where more ballots were cast than the number of people who voted. It is unconscionable that the Commission has made no serious effort to look at these problems.

Part VII: Unwarranted Criticism of Florida Law Enforcement
Despite clear and direct testimony during the hearings, as well as additional information submitted by Florida officials after the hearings, the majority report continues to charge the Florida Highway Patrol with behavior that was "perceived" by a number of voters as unusual (and thus somehow "intimidating") on election day. This is a serious charge.

In fact, only two persons are identified in the majority report regarding their perception of activities of the Florida Highway Patrol on election day. One testified about a police checkpoint, and the other testified that he found it "unusual" to see an empty police car parked outside of a polling facility. Neither of these witnesses' testimony indicates how their or others' ability to vote was impaired by these events.

As the chief of the Florida Highway Patrol, Colonel Charles C. Hall, testified in Tallahassee, there was one motor vehicle checkpoint, in Leon County, on election day. That checkpoint was not adequately authorized and resulted in one complaint. The equipment checkpoint operation lasted about 90 minutes (between 10:00 a.m. and 11:30 a.m.) and occurred more than two miles away and on a different roadway from the nearest polling facility. Of the approximately 150 cars stopped at the checkpoint, a total of 18 citations or notices of faulty equipment were issued to 16 different individuals, 12 of whom were white. The citizen who lodged the complaint testified that she had contacted the NAACP after she returned from voting, yet refused to meet with the FHP to assist their investigation. Despite this one, highly publicized incident, there has been no evidence whatsoever of police intimidation of voters.

Writing in response to the affected agency review, the general counsel for the State of Florida's Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles, Enoch J. Whitney, stands by the evidence presented by Colonel Hall at the hearing:

Colonel Hall's testimony conclusively demonstrates that there was no intent by members of the Florida Highway Patrol to delay or prohibit any citizen from voting on Election Day. All pertinent evidence shows that in fact no one was delayed or prohibited from voting by virtue of the equipment checkpoint operation.

The Commission majority's willingness to perpetuate a gross misperception of this issue is a disservice to the public's confidence in America's electoral and law enforcement systems, and an insult to the dedicated officers of Florida's law enforcement community.

Part VIII: Procedural Irregularities on the U.S Commission on Civil Rights
Procedural irregularities have seriously marred the majority report. In writing the report, the Commission ignored not only the rules of evidence, but the agency's own procedures for gathering evidence. By arguing that "every voice must be heard," while in fact stifling the voice of the political minority on the Commission itself, it is guilty of gross hypocrisy.

In writing this report, the Commission majority has ignored not only the rules of evidence, but the agency's own procedures for gathering evidence. The procedural issues are important to the extent they relate to the policy and politics driving this report. By pretending to investigate procedural irregularities while engaging in procedural irregularities of its own, the Commission majority undermines its credibility and diminishes the value of its work. By arguing that "every voice must be heard" while in fact stifling the voice of others, the Commission is guilty of gross hypocrisy. The majority report claims the election was marked by "injustice, ineptitude and inefficiency," yet it has tarred itself with its own feather in this report.

Republican and Independent Commissioners were never asked if they would like to call witnesses. Hearings were completely controlled by the Chair and the General Counsel, and Commissioners did not even know who the witnesses were to be at one Miami hearing; thus they could not properly prepare questions.

When the hearings failed to provide any evidence of widespread voter disfranchisement, the Chair unilaterally approved a last-minute procurement of the services of an outside "statistician," Professor Allan Lichtman. Commissioners were never asked to approve this contract, nor were they contacted regarding any suggestions they might have for additional or alternate experts. Over the objections of the two dissenting Commissioners, the Chair now also proposes that Dr. Lichtman be tasked with producing an analysis of their dissent. No outside expert has ever before been asked to produce such an analysis, let alone have that analysis attached to the final report.

1. Failure to follow statutory requirements for fair and objective proceedings.

Under the Commission's regulations, all proceedings are to be conducted in a fair and objective manner. During its hearings in Florida, however, the Commission failed to ensure fair, equal and courteous treatment of witnesses. The secretary of state was treated in an insulting manner, and the governor was the only witness during the proceedings who was denied the opportunity to deliver an opening statement.

2. Conclusions issued before all of the evidence was received.

The Commission reached its verdict long before it had even completed its review of the evidence. On March 9, the Chair introduced a "preliminary assessment" that was not shared with Commissioners beforehand and that did not provide Florida officials with an opportunity to respond to the charges against them. These procedures are sadly reminiscent of Alison in Wonderland's court of the Red Queen: "Verdict first, trial later!"

3. Denial of "defame and degrade" review.

Section 702.18 of the Code of Federal Regulations requires the Commission to give parties that might be defamed or degraded by its reports a chance to respond. The majority report states that "the Commission followed its procedures by conducting a defame and degrade review." It fails to state that the Commission's general counsel denied the governor's request to be given the requisite 30 days, under defame and degrade, to review the report in its entirety (instead of select portions) and the requisite 20 days to submit a "timely, verified response." The general counsel's explanation on June 8 was that there was "no statement [in the report] that would constitute defame and degrade." In light of the Chair's statement on June 8 that the governor, the secretary of state, and other state officials were "grossly derelict in fulfilling their responsibilities," the general counsel's decision appears to indicate that the Commission has been "grossly derelict" in its treatment of those who assist its investigations.

4. Inadequate affected agency review and consideration of affected agency comments

The report also claims that "[a]ffected agencies were afforded an opportunity to review applicable portions." The Commission's project management system normally requires at least 30 days for affected agency review, yet the governor and other officials were given only 10 days to review the report, and the report was given to the press before affected parties could respond. In an interview with the New York Times, the general counsel claimed that anyone wishing to respond to the Florida report would have 20 days to do so. Few of the affected agency comments have actually been factored into the final report.

To compound the seriousness of these procedural improprieties, the Commission handed out copies of the draft report at the June 8 meeting and posted the draft on its web site, thereby widely disseminating a version of the report that included none of the affected agency comments or any of the corrections and amendments discussed at the June 8 meeting.

Affected agency review is an essential procedure to ensure fairness and accuracy of Commission reports. Contrary to the Chair's statement on June 8, it is not a mere "courtesy" that is granted or denied at the whim of the Chair or the staff. In this case, the procedure was mooted by the leak to the press and the public dissemination of a preliminary, uncorrected draft.

5. No management controls for this agency in disarray:

A 1997 investigation by the GAO found the Commission to be an "agency in disarray" and cited, in particular, the lack of communication and effective management controls regarding the Commission's projects. Pursuant to the GAO investigation, the Commission implemented its management information system to specify timelines for completion of the Commission's work product. In the case of the Florida report, however, no clear or consistent timeline has been maintained for this project and Commissioners' inquiries to both the Chair and the staff director have been routinely ignored.

For example, at the March 9 meeting, instead of taking up a status report on the project (as the agenda announced), Commissioners were asked to approve, without any advance notice at all, the Chair's own personal statement of preliminary findings. At the same meeting, the Chair advised Commissioners that, "in April we expect to have the draft of the voting rights in Florida, the actual draft, in front of us." In April, however, Commissioners were given only an "Outline of the Final Document" and were advised that the draft report would be considered at the June 8 meeting. At no time were Commissioners advised they would be given only three days to read the report prior to the June 8 vote. The Chair dismissed any criticism in this regard, asserting that Commissioners should have known "that we would receive it when we did receive it."

Instead of taking responsibility for the question of agency leaks, the Chair now proposes to legitimize the premature disclosure of Commission reports, by suggesting a change in policy for Commission reports. Specifically, the Chair proposes, for future reports, "that we release the draft of the report publicly as soon as it's available without waiting [until] even when we give it to the Commissioners." Such a procedure would be totally unacceptable and an unconscionable breach of the Commission's statutory obligations.

6. Selection of Allan Lichtman as the Commission's Sole Statistical Analyst for the Florida Report

This claim is based entirely on a statistical analysis conducted for the commission by Professor Allan Lichtman of American University. In the pages below, we will show that a rigorous statistical analysis of the available data clearly and convincingly contradicts Dr. Lictman's alleged findings. Dr. Lichtman's conclusions are so unsupportable, however, that it is first worth pausing to discuss the Commission's selection of him as its sole statistical analyst to carry out such crucial work.

The choice of Dr. Lichtman to carry out this work is problematic and revealing of the Commission majority's biases. When he appeared at the June 8, 2001, meeting of the commission to present his findings, he took pains to present himself as a scholar above party, who had "worked for Democratic interests... and for Republican interests." Unfortunately, he failed to mention a highly pertinent fact that appears on the American University website--that he worked as a "consultant to Vice-President Albert Gore, Jr."

Furthermore, although Dr. Lichtman claimed (at the June 8 Commission meeting) that he began his study of possible racial bias in the Florida election with an open--indeed, even "skeptical"--mind, in fact, evidence suggests the contrary. As early as January 11, at the very beginning of his investigation and prior to conducting any detailed statistical analysis of his own, Dr. Lichtman stated publicly that he was already convinced, on the basis of what he had read in the New York Times, that in Florida "minorities perhaps can go to the polls unimpeded, but their votes are less likely to count because of the disparate technology than are the votes of whites." He concluded: "In my view, that is a classic violation of the Voting Rights Act." Long before he examined any of the statistics, Dr. Lichtman had already concluded that Florida had disfranchised minority voters and violated the Voting Rights Act.

A social scientist with strong partisan leanings might conceivably still conduct an even-handed, impartial analysis of a body of data. Unfortunately, that is not the case in the present instance.

Conclusion
America's journey on the road to racial and ethnic equality is far from over.  We have traveled far, and still have far to go.  But the Commission's majority report positively sets us back.  By crying "disfranchisement" where there was confusion, bureaucratic mistakes, and voter error, the report encourages public indifference.  Real civil rights problems stir the moral conscience of Americans; inflated rhetoric depicting crimes for which there is no evidence undermines public confidence in civil rights advocates and the causes to which they devote themselves.

The U.S. Commission on Civil Rights was once the moral conscience of the nation. Under the direction of the Chair, Mary Frances Berry, it has become an agency dedicated to furthering a partisan agenda. After six months of desperately searching for widespread disfranchisement in Florida, the Commission produced a 200-page report based on faulty analysis and echoing vague and unsubstantiated claims.

The shoddy quality of the work, its stolen-election message, and its picture of black citizens as helpless victims in the American political process is neither in the public interest nor in the interest of black and other minority citizens.    Do we really want black Americans to believe there is no reason to get to the polls; elections are always stolen; they remain disfranchised? There is important work the Commission can do.  But not if its scholarly and procedural standards are as low as those in this Florida report.

 

1 Report, 154
2 Report, 18.
3 Report, 21. Note that later in the report, on page 148, the majority asserts that it was highly anomalous that 63 percent of spoiled ballots in Palm Beach County were overvotes, and blames the alleged anomaly on the infamous butterfly ballot. The pattern, according to the report, was "just the opposite of what we normally observe, which is five percent or less of the spoiled ballots." How could the author of this passage possibly think that 5 percent or less was the norm for overvotes in Florida when the Lichtman cited earlier reveal earlier show that fully 59 percent of all the spoiled ballots in the state were overvotes 4 Martin Merzer, The Miami Herald Report: Democracy Held Hostage (New York: St. Martin's Press, 2001), 194
5 Ibid., 195.
6 Ibid., 230-231
7 Report, 1
8 According to the Caltech/MIT Voting Project, "state and federal voting machine certifications tolerate very low machine failure rates: no more than 1 in 250,000 ballots for federal certification and no more than 1 in 1,000,000 in some states." The problem, according to these investigators, has to do with "how people relate to the technologies...." See the Caltech/MIT Voting Project, "A Preliminary Assessment of the Reliability of Existing Voting Equipment," February 1, 2001, 13.
9 Exit polls are commonly used to estimate how particular groups voted, and even they are far from perfect. One flaw is that absentee voters are not represented at all. In any event, we can't tell from an exit poll whether someone failed to complete a valid ballot; if they thought they had erred, presumably they would have had it invalidated and received another.
10 W.G. Robinson, "Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals," American Sociological Review, vol. 15 (June, 1950), 351-357.
11 D.A. Freedman, "Ecological Inference and the Ecological Fallacy," University of California at Berkeley Department of Statistics Technical Report No. 549, Oct. 15, 1999, This paper will appear as a chapter in the forthcoming International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences.
12 Transcript of June 8, 2001 meeting, 42.
13The explanation is that immigrants tend to be attracted to the richer states--California and New York rather than Tennessee and Mississippi. Thus their presence is associated with high average incomes at the state level, but that does not mean that their average incomes are especially high.
14 D. A. Freedman, S. P. Klein, M. Ostland, and M. Robert, "On 'Solutions' to the Ecological Inference Problem," Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 93 (December 1998), 1518-1523.
15 Report, 21,
16 Lichtman, "Draft Report on the Racial Impact of the Rejection of Ballots Cast in the 2000 Presidential Election in the State of Florida," June 4, 2001.
17 Lott, "Issues in the Interpretation of the Statistical Evidence Employed in the Report of the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights on the 2000 Election in Florida," 3.
18 National Center for Education Statistics, Adult Literacy in America: A First Look at the Results of the National Adult Literacy Survey, National Center for Education Statistics (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1993), 18, 113.
19National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP 1998 Reading Report Card for the Nation and the States, NCES 1999-500 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Education, 1999), 70.
20 National Center for Education Statistics, Literacy in the Labor Force: Results from the National Adult Literacy Survey, NCES 1999-470 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Education, 1999), 57.
21NAEP 1998 Reading Report Card, 260, and data from the NAEP website.
22 Report, 22; Lichtman Report, 6.
23 Report, 34.
24 CSAS website
25 Transcript of June 8, 2001 Meeting, 44.
26 Ibid, 44.
27 Report, 141
28 U.S. Census Bureau, Profiles of General Population Characteristics, 2000 Census of Population and Housing: Florida, May 2001, Table DP-1. We state that the black population was approximately 15 percent of the total because its exact size depends upon the definition you use. Some 14.6 percent of Floridians reported that their sole race was black. If you add in people who considered themselves both black and something else, the figure increases to 15.5 percent, still substantially smaller than the Hispanic population.
29 Ibid. In addition to the 2.7 million Hispanics and the 450,000 Asians or American Indians, another 697,000 Floridians reported that they were of "other race," meaning other than white, black, American Indian, Asian, or Pacific Islander. Most of these "other race" respondents were, in all likelihood, Latinos, and thus cannot be fairly added to the total excluded from attention because it would entail double counting. All Hispanics were excluded, however they answered the race question.
30 Transcript of United States Commission on Civil Rights meeting, Washington, D.C., June 8, 2001, 46.
31 http://www.american.edu/cas/faculty.shtml#HISTORY. WMA
32Transcript of U.S. Commission on Civil Rights hearing, Tallahassee, Florida, January 11, 2001, PAGE TK

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