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Exchequer

NRO’s eye on debt and deficits . . . by Kevin D. Williamson.


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Presidents, Precedents

News flash: This is not 1982, and Obama is not Reagan.

The important difference is this: There was a good reason for the Volcker-Reagan recession: defeating inflation. American voters may not be terribly economically sophisticated, but they sure as heck did notice when inflation went from 13.5 percent to 3.2 percent — in two years. Presidents’ effects on the economy are overstated (economies are complicated and many of the most important factors are exogenous to public policy), but tackling inflation was a matter of politics and policy. The recession was hard, but we came through with something to show for it. For instance, mortgage rates that were 7 percent instead of 19 percent.

What, precisely, will we have to show for having come through the Obama recession(s)? A gigantic new federal entitlement program? Staggering amounts of debt? Persistently high levels of unemployment? That’s the best-case scenario. The worst case scenario includes pre-Reagan levels of inflation, a debased dollar, and a deep double dip in Recession Round 2. Obama’s first-class temperament is not going to do him a lot of good with a third-class economy.

New on Exchequer. . .


COMMENTS   8

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   08/18/10 11:13

Third-class economy? How about a Third-World economy?!

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   08/18/10 11:50

Reagan was an incredible deficit spender, I don't think you can distinguish between Obama and Reagan on that factor.

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   08/18/10 11:50

Reagan was an incredible deficit spender, I don't think you can distinguish between Obama and Reagan on that factor.

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   08/18/10 12:37

@BenMurphyNYC

Its easy to distinguish between Obama and Reagan w.r.t. deficit spending. Here's a link...

External Link 

...the meat of the article...

"...but Reaganomics created huge deficits, right? That’s the big criticism. It isn’t accurate. It needs to be understood — now more than ever...The deficit under Ronald Reagan increased 35 percent, from an inherited deficit (from President Jimmy Carter) of $104 billion in 1980 to a final deficit of $141 billion in 1989. The deficit peaked at $236 billion in 1983...(and) dropping steadily in 1986... Compare that to what’s happening now, where the direct opposite of Reaganomics is being pursued...: President Obama inherited a record Bush deficit of $400 billion, but is generating a far worse $1.8-trillion deficit in his first year. ...We’ve never seen anything like this. This unthinkable explosion is a direct result of the stunning government spending unleashed by Mr. Obama and the Democratic leadership in just eight weeks — an unheard of development in 233 years of American history..."

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   08/18/10 12:48

one of the best sites, that compiles unemployment and inflation, providing the monthly change in each?

miseryindex.us

"Reagan was an incredible deficit spender"
hardly. dems get lost in nominal numbers without considering inflation.

Reagan increase in size of govt, inflation adjusted?
20%, over two terms. (obama hit 16%,or 500 billion, more in his first budget.)

Inflation adjusted govt revenue?
70%, over his two terms.

"I don't think you can distinguish between Obama and Reagan on that factor."

I just did.

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   08/18/10 13:15

btw...
reagan cut unemployment from 10.8% to 7.4% in 16 months (12/82-5/84) as well as creating 25 million jobs over his two terms. If there is the incorrect preception of deficit 'spending', perhaps one could still find mitigation in the effects on our economy.

imagine if we salted in the jobs he "saved".

Cutting one's democratic nose off, to spite one's gop face is not a plan for governance.

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   08/19/10 17:11

The only comparisons you can make between Reagan and Obama is this: Reagan was one of the greatest presidents, and Obama will be one of the worst. Obama can be compared far more with Carter not Reagan.

We are going to NEED a Reagan type presidency after the nightmare of the Obama regime is brought to an end.... God help us if he manages to get himself a second term.

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   08/20/10 12:53

Reagan was not an incredible deficit spender. Reagan was not a spender. Congress spends money. Congress levies taxes. Tip O'Neill was an incredible deficit spender.

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