DS: Not altruistically absorbing higher prices, I don't think, but recessions and weak economies have a way of putting a damper on price hikes. Also, some of our trading partners, particularly China, have political mandates to keep export volumes high even if profits are low, for various reasons.

Also, durable-goods orders have been declining, and nobody wants to jack up prices when demand already is falling.

I'm not sure how useful a measure "core" CPI is: If the inflation action is in food and energy, then you aren't going to see it reflected in an index that excludes food and energy. But there's no reason that the results of inflation have to be evenly distributed throughout the economy. We had massive housing inflation for a decade, and most everybody loved it. Until they didn't.

I shop at a Safeway and a Trader Joe's in Northern Virginia. I do virtually all the food shopping for a family of eight, so I am very familiar with food prices.

My total expense for groceries hasn't gone up by more than 3% over the past year.

My experience, then, suggests the overall CPI (not just the core one) showing low inflation is correct, and that Mr. Williamson and his commenters are living on another planet.

I don't put blind faith in government data, but I distrust them less than the personal anecdotes of people who have axes to grind and whose experiences don't remotely match my own.

As the head of large (by modern standards) family packed into a townhouse in Fairfax, I don't think I live in an ivory tower. Kevin Williamson and his commenters, on the other hand . . .

Stan Greer:

But you are no doubt correct that my experiences "do not remotely match" those of a Trader Joe's-shopping guy in the D.C. suburbs. Congratulations.

Also, brilliant detective work on finding a guy "with an ax to grind" writing for an opinion journal.

I have a feeling that you work for the government. If you don't, consider it!

I am relatively new to economic theory (Macro Econ 101 was an 8 am class 20 years ago... ) but I generally understand the explanation about inflation being a measure of increased money supply, not price increases. My question, which I'm sure is laughably ignorant, is once "optimum inflation" is achieved, what then? How do you slam the brakes on the money supply, particularly when it is a global condition, without massively disrupting economies?

P.S. I've lived in various parts of the country over the years, including several years in Alexandria, VA. It has been my experience that for whatever reason, prices in the DC area fluctuate much less than in other parts of the country...

Here's one fix for the rise in food prices - turn the frickin' water back on to California's Central Valley! The eco-nazis place the survival of three inch, inedible fish in the Sacramento delta above, oh say, the single working mom who has to buy food for her children so they can have a decent meal!

I just recently drove up the 5 from LA to SF and it is essentially the dust bowl from 1930's Oklahoma.

"Core" CPI is dominated by shelter costs. Shelter costs are currently severely depressed due to the housing bust. The Fed would do better to look at CPI ex-shelter, or at least excluding "owners equivalent rent," which has to be the least useful statistic ever devised.

I think Stan is just a troll. I have 7 children. And our core grocery list has remained the same for over 3 years. And I can tell you that the price of beef, poultry, pork, eggs, flour, sugar, potatos, canned goods, frozen veggies, and bread have all gone up considerably. My wife cooks much of food from scratch, so when we do buy processed food the sticker shock is considerable.

I read earlier last autumn that Walmart was able to get its suppliers to eat the wholesale increases by accepting lower margins. Depending on where you buy your food, the price increases vary. Again, many producers have kept this commodity inflation from the consumer to some degree. But, with corn approaching $7/bushel, soybeans selling for over $10/bushel, and oil approaching $100/barrel, whole sale prices are set to explode later this year. Unless Stan is feeding his family Snickers and Blatz Beer (even Beer has gone up over 15% in the last 2 years) I seriously doubt the veracity of his statements.

I would rather have 10% inflation than 1% deflation.
The CPI is not the measure of the Inflation or Deflation in the overall economy, only the consumer portion of the economy, and that with a flawed housing cost component.
The Largest measure of money supply called M3 (Fed stopped tracking M3 in Oct. 06, how convenient, Huh) is still deflating, deflation is destructive, it destroys businesses, people lose their jobs, and foreclosures skyrocket (like now). 60% of American family net wealth is held as equity in their home, and the American family nest egg is being crushed by falling home values.

JPK, my last comment was evidently blocked, but I'll try anyway.

What is your total food bill today, compared to three years ago, assuming you had seven kids then as well?

That's more important than what specific items cost.

Anyway, I assume you (or, it seems, your wife) tries to shop wisely and buy what's on sale. I did this three years ago, and I do it now. Using this strategy, I was able to get a fairly good quality loaf of whole wheat for $2.00 three years ago (give or take 30 cents, depending on the season and other factors), and I'm able to do the same today. I was able to get a gallon of whole milk for just under three bucks three years ago, and I can generally do that today, by comparison shopping at two stores. I'm now generally able to get a pound of 80/20 hamburger for $2.50, which is less than I had to spend three years ago.

I'm sure I could do better yet if I bought in bulk, but we have only one refrigerator and not much pantry space, so I don't go to Costco etc.

That's my real world experience. If you did your shopping yourself, instead of (apparently) having your wife do it, perhaps you would agree with me. In general, I notice that wives, who do most of the shopping for necessities across America, are much less apt to rant publicly about "rampant" inflation than husbands and (especially) single gentlemen.